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GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks dip, European shares outperform ahead of expected ECB rate cut
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GLOBAL MARKETS-World stocks dip, European shares outperform ahead of expected ECB rate cut
Sep 11, 2024 12:34 AM

*

Soft China inflation data signals weak demand

*

Dollar bounces vs yen as yields come off lows

*

ECB seen cutting 25 bps on Thursday, Fed the same next

week

(Adds quote in paragraph 6, recasts, updates prices 1130 GMT)

By Nell Mackenzie

LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Wall Street looked set to

open higher while world equities dithered at four-week lows on

Monday, as the question of U.S. and global growth divided

traders internationally.

MSCI's gauge of stocks around the globe fell

1.94 points, or 0.24%, to its lowest level in almost a month,

while S&P rose 0.8% and Nasdaq futures climbed

0.9%.

European stock markets gained roughly 0.7% with all

regional bourses up around the same amount

, except for the CAC 40 up 0.8%.

Centre stage this week in Europe will be Thursday's European

Central Bank rate decision. The ECB, which cut rates by 25 basis

points in June, is widely expected to ease policy by the same

amount.

But the main focus for markets in these next few weeks will

be the health of the U.S. economy, said Victor Balfour,

investment strategist at Rothschild & Co. in a phone call with

Reuters.

"The economic picture is not that soft yet, even with some

data indicating a cooling of activity, it's not a collapse,"

said Balfour.

Fed fund futures dipped as investors wondered

whether the mixed U.S. August payrolls report would be enough to

tip the Federal Reserve into cutting rates by an outsized 50 bps

when it meets next week.

So far, markets imply around a 30% chance of a large cut, in

part due to comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and

New York Fed President John Williams on Friday, though Waller

did leave open the option of aggressive easing.

"Our read of the data is that the labour market continues to

cool, but we see no sign of the kind of rapid deterioration in

conditions that would call for a 50 bps rate cut," Barclays

economist Christian Keller said.

"Importantly, we also see no indication of any appetite for

this in Fed communications," he added.

Investors are pricing in 113 bps of easing by year-end and

another 132 bps for 2025.

Data on August U.S. consumer prices on Wednesday should

underline the case for a cut, if not the size, with headline

inflation seen slowing to 2.6% from 2.9%.

Tuesday will see Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican

Donald Trump debate for the first time ahead of the presidential

election on Nov. 5.

YIELDS BOUNCE BACK

Euro zone and U.S. government bond yields rose after falling

for much of last week.

There was a modest underperformance of French bonds after

French newspaper La Tribune de Dimanche reported that the French

finance ministry had requested an extension to the deadline for

submitting its 2025 budget to the EU beyond Sept. 20.

Both U.S. 10-year and two-year Treasury yields rose 4 bps to

3.75% and 3.69%, moving away from last

week's 15-month lows.

The yen also gave up some of its gains as the dollar jumped

over 1% to 143.62 yen. The euro dipped 0.4% to $1.1043

, having briefly been as high as $1.1155 on Friday.

Data on Monday showed China inflation growing at the fastest

pace in half a year. However, producer price deflation worsened,

reflecting the underlying trend of a struggling economy.

This sent China's blue-chip index down 1.2% to its

lowest level since early February. Japan's Nikkei fell

roughly 0.5% as tech stocks declined.

Oil prices found some support as a potential hurricane

system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast. Oil prices tumbled almost

10% last week in their biggest weekly fall in 11 months amid

persistent concerns about global demand.

Brent rose 55 cents to $71.61 a barrel, while U.S.

crude climbed 58 cents to $68.25 per barrel.

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