*
Soft China inflation data signals weak demand
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Dollar bounces vs yen as yields come off lows
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ECB seen cutting 25 bps on Thursday, Fed the same next
week
(Adds quote in paragraph 6, recasts, updates prices 1130 GMT)
By Nell Mackenzie
LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Wall Street looked set to
open higher while world equities dithered at four-week lows on
Monday, as the question of U.S. and global growth divided
traders internationally.
MSCI's gauge of stocks around the globe fell
1.94 points, or 0.24%, to its lowest level in almost a month,
while S&P rose 0.8% and Nasdaq futures climbed
0.9%.
European stock markets gained roughly 0.7% with all
regional bourses up around the same amount
, except for the CAC 40 up 0.8%.
Centre stage this week in Europe will be Thursday's European
Central Bank rate decision. The ECB, which cut rates by 25 basis
points in June, is widely expected to ease policy by the same
amount.
But the main focus for markets in these next few weeks will
be the health of the U.S. economy, said Victor Balfour,
investment strategist at Rothschild & Co. in a phone call with
Reuters.
"The economic picture is not that soft yet, even with some
data indicating a cooling of activity, it's not a collapse,"
said Balfour.
Fed fund futures dipped as investors wondered
whether the mixed U.S. August payrolls report would be enough to
tip the Federal Reserve into cutting rates by an outsized 50 bps
when it meets next week.
So far, markets imply around a 30% chance of a large cut, in
part due to comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and
New York Fed President John Williams on Friday, though Waller
did leave open the option of aggressive easing.
"Our read of the data is that the labour market continues to
cool, but we see no sign of the kind of rapid deterioration in
conditions that would call for a 50 bps rate cut," Barclays
economist Christian Keller said.
"Importantly, we also see no indication of any appetite for
this in Fed communications," he added.
Investors are pricing in 113 bps of easing by year-end and
another 132 bps for 2025.
Data on August U.S. consumer prices on Wednesday should
underline the case for a cut, if not the size, with headline
inflation seen slowing to 2.6% from 2.9%.
Tuesday will see Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican
Donald Trump debate for the first time ahead of the presidential
election on Nov. 5.
YIELDS BOUNCE BACK
Euro zone and U.S. government bond yields rose after falling
for much of last week.
There was a modest underperformance of French bonds after
French newspaper La Tribune de Dimanche reported that the French
finance ministry had requested an extension to the deadline for
submitting its 2025 budget to the EU beyond Sept. 20.
Both U.S. 10-year and two-year Treasury yields rose 4 bps to
3.75% and 3.69%, moving away from last
week's 15-month lows.
The yen also gave up some of its gains as the dollar jumped
over 1% to 143.62 yen. The euro dipped 0.4% to $1.1043
, having briefly been as high as $1.1155 on Friday.
Data on Monday showed China inflation growing at the fastest
pace in half a year. However, producer price deflation worsened,
reflecting the underlying trend of a struggling economy.
This sent China's blue-chip index down 1.2% to its
lowest level since early February. Japan's Nikkei fell
roughly 0.5% as tech stocks declined.
Oil prices found some support as a potential hurricane
system approached the U.S. Gulf Coast. Oil prices tumbled almost
10% last week in their biggest weekly fall in 11 months amid
persistent concerns about global demand.
Brent rose 55 cents to $71.61 a barrel, while U.S.
crude climbed 58 cents to $68.25 per barrel.