(Writes through, adds details, investor comment, updates prices)
* STOXX 600 down 0.3%, Wall St futures inch lower
* Dollar holds firm after spike in Treasury yields
* Yen hits fresh 40-year low; traders watch for intervention
* Oil falls as markets await outcome of Iran-US talks
By Danilo Masoni
MILAN, July 1 (Reuters) - World stocks edged lower on the
first day of the third quarter on Wednesday after a strong
rally, as investors awaited remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh,
while softer euro zone inflation cooled bets on further interest
rate hikes.
Oil prices stayed near pre-war levels as investors weighed signs
that contacts between Iran and Washington aimed at reaching a
final deal to end their conflict were continuing.
Traders also watched for possible Japanese intervention after
the yen hit fresh 40-year lows against the dollar.
The MSCI World Price Index slipped 0.1% in
European afternoon trade after posting its strongest quarter in
around six years, up 13% on rallying chipmakers and tech stocks.
U.S. futures and European shares declined slightly.
"Iran is no longer a problem. There is no peace, but there
is no war either," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional
clients at Banca Ifigest, saying he viewed another European
Central Bank interest rate hike later this month as unlikely.
Data backed that view. Euro zone inflation eased more than
expected in June, further reducing pressure on the ECB to raise
rates again after last month's first hike in nearly three years.
Inflation in the bloc slowed to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in
May, coming well below expectations for a 3.0% reading, as food,
energy and services price pressures all eased.
Traders marginally pared bets on further tightening after
the figures and were pricing in around 23 basis points of
additional ECB rate increases by year-end.
Europe's region-wide STOXX 600 was down 0.3% at 1120
GMT, steadying after a 10% quarterly rise that marked its
strongest performance since late 2020, with sentiment towards
the region helped in recent weeks by falling energy prices.
"The second quarter GDP data isn't going to be great. But
clearly prospects of the Strait of Hormuz (opening) and lower
oil prices is a major positive factor for Europe," said Kevin
Thozet, member of the investment committee at Carmignac.
AWAITING WARSH
Investors will be keen to hear what Warsh says when he
appears at the ECB's annual central banking forum in Portugal
for clues on the outlook for U.S. interest rates, ahead of
Thursday's key U.S. jobs data.
Warsh has long been against the Fed providing forward
guidance and may give little away on his policy intentions.
Lauren van Biljon, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring
Global Investments, said underlying inflation trends suggested
the Fed may not need to tighten policy further.
"If the energy price shock starts to roll off in the
month-on-month inflation numbers, and our U.S. analysts are
still pretty confident that shelter and rent are disinflationary
factors through to the end of this year, it looks like the Fed
will be on hold," she said.
Futures imply a 33% chance of a Fed rate hike at its
meeting later this month, while the probability of a September
move is priced at 67% to 88%.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 4.9
basis points (bps) to 4.471%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq
futures declined 0.1-0.3%.
Markets paused after Wall Street posted its strongest
quarter since 2020, driven by an 88% surge in the Philadelphia
Semiconductor Index.
With earnings season starting in mid-July, investors are
banking on strong tech results to justify lofty valuations and
continued inflows into the sector.
Goldman Sachs ( GS ) said the consensus is for earnings per share
to grow 22% from a year earlier, with AI infrastructure stocks
accounting for nearly 60% of that increase.
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei gained 0.6% after surging
37% last quarter, with strong tech demand lifting sentiment
among big manufacturers to an eight-year high.
South Korea's main index fell about 2%, following a
68% quarterly rally driven by AI-fuelled chip demand.
The rise in U.S. yields helped lift the dollar as high as
162.84 yen, a new four-decade high. The climb has drawn threats
of intervention from Tokyo, though authorities appear reluctant
to act, having spent almost 12 trillion yen ($74 billion)
through April and May to little lasting effect.
The euro was down 0.2% at $1.1394.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the euro zone
benchmark, rose 2 basis points to 2.931%, while its two-year
bond yield, more sensitive to rate expectations, was
unchanged at 2.532% after the inflation data.
Brent crude was down around 1% at $72.27 a barrel,
reversing earlier gains, while gold was steady, trading
slightly above $4,000 an ounce after a difficult quarter.