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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Oil worries spook European markets before ECB and BoE decisions
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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Oil worries spook European markets before ECB and BoE decisions
Apr 30, 2026 3:08 AM

* Brent jumps to a four-year high

* ECB and BoE expected to hold rates but talk tough

* Hawkish Fed pushes up dollar and global bond yields

* Apple ( AAPL ) results due on Thursday on Wall Street

(Updates with European market moves throughout)

By Marc Jones

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Renewed risk aversion swept

global equity and bond markets on Thursday and oil surged to a

four-year high on worries that the Iran war could worsen, before

what could be difficult European Central Bank and Bank of

England meetings.

The rise of global oil benchmark Brent crude futures

to more than $126 before falling back, and an early drop in

European stocks, reflected concerns that a prolonged

conflict in the Middle East could choke oil supplies for months.

A hawkish shift in tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve as it

left rates on hold on Wednesday meant bond market borrowing

costs were still higher in Europe as investors there readied for

the ECB and the BoE to follow suit on Thursday.

Two-year German bond yields - which are sensitive

to near-term ECB rate changes - faced the prospect of a ninth

daily rise, while 2-year UK gilt yields briefly hit

their highest in 2-1/2 years.

AXIOS SAYS TRUMP TO BE BRIEFED

AXA's chief economist, Gilles Moec, said everything centred

on worries about the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.

News site Axios quoted unspecified sources as saying U.S.

President Donald Trump would on Thursday receive a briefing from

the leader of the U.S. Central Command, ​Brad Cooper, on new

plans for potential military action against Iran.

Negotiations have stalled and Axios said Washington hopes

⁠to make Iran more flexible at the negotiating table on nuclear

issues.

Investors are concerned that a prolonged conflict will drive

up pump prices and could even drive economies towards recession.

"The inflation shock is significant and probably going to

last longer than expected and at the same time the damage to the

economy is going to be higher," Moec said.

"This is playing into the hands of the hawks," he said,

referring to central bankers calling for higher interest rates

to prevent further inflationary problems.

Brent crude futures were up almost 3% at $122 a barrel in

European trading after hitting $126.41 overnight, the highest

since March 2022. Brent has now more than doubled in price this

year.

The U.S. dollar, which has been a favoured safe-haven

play since the war began on February 28, climbed to its highest

level in more than two weeks against a basket of top currencies.

Japan's yen also breached the key 160 threshold,

stoking renewed speculation of a possible FX intervention by

Tokyo after its repeated verbal warnings.

The Japanese currency has fallen more than 2% since the war

began and investors have built the biggest short yen position in

nearly two years in a bet that neither rate hikes nor

intervention warnings will come to its rescue.

Overnight, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds

had climbed to 2.5%, the highest since June 1997.

EYES ON APPLE

Investors were also gearing up for earnings from iPhone

maker Apple ( AAPL ) later as part of what has already been a

frenetic week of 'Big Tech' reports.

Google parent Alphabet's shares had leapt 7% in

extended Wall Street trading on Wednesday after it beat

forecasts. Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Amazon's ( AMZN ) were also

solid although Facebook and Instagram owner Meta

tumbled 7% on its plans to plough billions more into AI and

datacentres.

Europe's attention was now on what the ECB and BoE will

signal, especially after Wednesday's shift in tone at the Fed.

Three of the U.S. central bank's board members voted to drop

the easing bias in its policy statement in the most divided

decision since 1992.

Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell confirmed he would stay on as a

governor for now to defend the institution's independence as his

successor Kevin Warsh, picked by low-rate advocate U.S.

President Donald Trump, moves toward confirmation.

Laura Cooper, Global Investment Strategist and Head of Macro

Credit at fund manager Nuveen, said the BoE meeting would be

watched particularly closely, as markets have been pricing in

multiple rate increases when it is over.

"The UK is so interesting to me in the sense that we see

that as probably among the greatest mispricings in markets right

now," Cooper said, explaining that she expected a very different

picture to play out given the likely hit to the UK economy.

"We think the BOE will have to cut; their next move will be

a rate cut, probably not until Q4."

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