* Brent jumps to a four-year high
* ECB and BoE expected to hold rates but talk tough
* Hawkish Fed pushes up dollar and global bond yields
* Apple ( AAPL ) results due on Thursday on Wall Street
(Updates with European market moves throughout)
By Marc Jones
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Renewed risk aversion swept
global equity and bond markets on Thursday and oil surged to a
four-year high on worries that the Iran war could worsen, before
what could be difficult European Central Bank and Bank of
England meetings.
The rise of global oil benchmark Brent crude futures
to more than $126 before falling back, and an early drop in
European stocks, reflected concerns that a prolonged
conflict in the Middle East could choke oil supplies for months.
A hawkish shift in tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve as it
left rates on hold on Wednesday meant bond market borrowing
costs were still higher in Europe as investors there readied for
the ECB and the BoE to follow suit on Thursday.
Two-year German bond yields - which are sensitive
to near-term ECB rate changes - faced the prospect of a ninth
daily rise, while 2-year UK gilt yields briefly hit
their highest in 2-1/2 years.
AXIOS SAYS TRUMP TO BE BRIEFED
AXA's chief economist, Gilles Moec, said everything centred
on worries about the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
News site Axios quoted unspecified sources as saying U.S.
President Donald Trump would on Thursday receive a briefing from
the leader of the U.S. Central Command, Brad Cooper, on new
plans for potential military action against Iran.
Negotiations have stalled and Axios said Washington hopes
to make Iran more flexible at the negotiating table on nuclear
issues.
Investors are concerned that a prolonged conflict will drive
up pump prices and could even drive economies towards recession.
"The inflation shock is significant and probably going to
last longer than expected and at the same time the damage to the
economy is going to be higher," Moec said.
"This is playing into the hands of the hawks," he said,
referring to central bankers calling for higher interest rates
to prevent further inflationary problems.
Brent crude futures were up almost 3% at $122 a barrel in
European trading after hitting $126.41 overnight, the highest
since March 2022. Brent has now more than doubled in price this
year.
The U.S. dollar, which has been a favoured safe-haven
play since the war began on February 28, climbed to its highest
level in more than two weeks against a basket of top currencies.
Japan's yen also breached the key 160 threshold,
stoking renewed speculation of a possible FX intervention by
Tokyo after its repeated verbal warnings.
The Japanese currency has fallen more than 2% since the war
began and investors have built the biggest short yen position in
nearly two years in a bet that neither rate hikes nor
intervention warnings will come to its rescue.
Overnight, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds
had climbed to 2.5%, the highest since June 1997.
EYES ON APPLE
Investors were also gearing up for earnings from iPhone
maker Apple ( AAPL ) later as part of what has already been a
frenetic week of 'Big Tech' reports.
Google parent Alphabet's shares had leapt 7% in
extended Wall Street trading on Wednesday after it beat
forecasts. Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Amazon's ( AMZN ) were also
solid although Facebook and Instagram owner Meta
tumbled 7% on its plans to plough billions more into AI and
datacentres.
Europe's attention was now on what the ECB and BoE will
signal, especially after Wednesday's shift in tone at the Fed.
Three of the U.S. central bank's board members voted to drop
the easing bias in its policy statement in the most divided
decision since 1992.
Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell confirmed he would stay on as a
governor for now to defend the institution's independence as his
successor Kevin Warsh, picked by low-rate advocate U.S.
President Donald Trump, moves toward confirmation.
Laura Cooper, Global Investment Strategist and Head of Macro
Credit at fund manager Nuveen, said the BoE meeting would be
watched particularly closely, as markets have been pricing in
multiple rate increases when it is over.
"The UK is so interesting to me in the sense that we see
that as probably among the greatest mispricings in markets right
now," Cooper said, explaining that she expected a very different
picture to play out given the likely hit to the UK economy.
"We think the BOE will have to cut; their next move will be
a rate cut, probably not until Q4."