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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Stock markets cautious, oil gains on Hormuz doubts; traders await central banks
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GLOBAL-MARKETS-Stock markets cautious, oil gains on Hormuz doubts; traders await central banks
Mar 16, 2026 2:36 AM

* Oil volatile as Hormuz shipping plans lack detail

* Host of central banks seen warning on inflation,

growthU.S. stock futures, Asia shares slightly higher, Europe

flat

* Dollar off highs, still near major chart levels

(Updates with early European trading)

By Alun John and Wayne Cole

LONDON/SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - Investors were in a

wary mood on Monday as hostilities in the Gulf kept oil prices

elevated, clouding an inflation outlook that should keep most

central banks on pause at policy meetings this week, though

Australia is likely to hike.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remained a major

investor focus and U.S. President Donald Trump's demands for a

coalition to help reopen the vital waterway appeared to fall on

deaf ears on Monday as allies Japan and Australia said they were

not planning to send vessels to escort ships through it.

Further complicating matters, Trump told the Financial Times

on Sunday that he was expecting China to help unblock the strait

before his scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping in

Beijing at the end of this month. He said he might postpone his

trip if China did not provide assistance.

He also warned that NATO faces a "very bad" future if its

members failed to come to Washington's aid.

Benchmark Brent crude was last at $106.30 a barrel, up 3.7%

on the day. It was below $70 a barrel in late February before

the war began and had dipped under $60 in early January.

This sharp move has caused market participants to

dramatically reassess what they think central banks will do and

traders have slashed the amount of easing they had expected this

year.

Traders have not quite fully priced one Federal Reserve rate

cut this year and they expect at least one hike by the European

Central Bank by the end of 2026.

And with interest-rate setters in the U.S., Britain, euro

zone, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden this week

all holding their first meetings since the start of the war,

investors hope they will get some more colour on policymakers'

thinking.

The big question for officials is "how long does the

conflict last, (and) does the shock in energy prices - offset by

fiscal support - cause second-round inflation effects and

therefore require restrictive monetary policy," said Kenneth

Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe

Generale.

"Or are economies heading down a recessionary path and does

oil trigger a bear market in risk assets?"

Risk assets like stocks have fallen sharply since the war

began, but were somewhat steadier on Monday as investors tried

to process what might happen next.

Europe's broad STOXX 600 was flat on Monday, though it is

down 6% since the war began. U.S. shares have fallen less, the

S&P 500 is down 3.5%, and futures were up 0.5% in early

European trading.

Earlier in the day, Asia-Pacific stocks

nudged up 0.3%, helped by a rebound in South Korea. The

once-loved, tech-heavy KOSPI benchmark has been an epicentre of

selling globally since the war began, but even with Monday's 1%

gain, it is down 11% in March.

Chinese blue chips were flat after data showed

retail sales and industrial output for January and February

topped forecasts, while house prices continued to slip.

Top U.S. and Chinese officials are also meeting in Paris to

discuss potential deals in agriculture, critical minerals and

managed trade for Trump and Xi to consider when the U.S.

president visits Beijing.

ALL THE CENTRAL BANKS

And the dramatic move in central bank pricing has caused

major shifts in government bonds.

Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.265%, a

fraction down on the day after having climbed 30 basis points

since the war began, while futures have sharply scaled back the

scope for future rate cuts.

The Fed is considered certain to hold on Wednesday and the

chance of an easing by June has fallen to just 26% from 69% a

month ago.

Rate-sensitive, shorter-dated yields have moved even more

dramatically and two-year German yields have risen 40 basis

points, while the equivalent British gilt yield has increased

nearly 60 bps.

A cautiously steady outcome is expected from the other

central bank meetings, excluding the Reserve Bank of Australia

which is seen likely to raise its cash rate a quarter point to

4.1% as it battles resurgent inflation at home.

The heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit

the U.S. dollar as a store of liquidity. The U.S. is also a net

energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over Europe and

much of Asia, which are net importers.

The dollar was trading a touch lower early on Monday, partly

in reaction to the report that shipping might be escorted

through the Strait of Hormuz.

The dollar eased 0.3% to 159.25 yen, just off a

20-month top of 159.75, with investors wary in case a break of

160.00 triggers more warnings of intervention from Japan.

The euro inched up 0.2% from near a seven-month low at

$1.1442, threatening a breach of major chart support

at $1.1392 that could unleash a retreat towards $1.1065.

Gold was down 0.5% at $4,996 an ounce, having so far

seen scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against

inflation risks.

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