* Oil volatile as Hormuz shipping plans lack detail
* Host of central banks seen warning on inflation,
growthU.S. stock futures, Asia shares slightly higher, Europe
flat
* Dollar off highs, still near major chart levels
(Updates with early European trading)
By Alun John and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY, March 16 (Reuters) - Investors were in a
wary mood on Monday as hostilities in the Gulf kept oil prices
elevated, clouding an inflation outlook that should keep most
central banks on pause at policy meetings this week, though
Australia is likely to hike.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remained a major
investor focus and U.S. President Donald Trump's demands for a
coalition to help reopen the vital waterway appeared to fall on
deaf ears on Monday as allies Japan and Australia said they were
not planning to send vessels to escort ships through it.
Further complicating matters, Trump told the Financial Times
on Sunday that he was expecting China to help unblock the strait
before his scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping in
Beijing at the end of this month. He said he might postpone his
trip if China did not provide assistance.
He also warned that NATO faces a "very bad" future if its
members failed to come to Washington's aid.
Benchmark Brent crude was last at $106.30 a barrel, up 3.7%
on the day. It was below $70 a barrel in late February before
the war began and had dipped under $60 in early January.
This sharp move has caused market participants to
dramatically reassess what they think central banks will do and
traders have slashed the amount of easing they had expected this
year.
Traders have not quite fully priced one Federal Reserve rate
cut this year and they expect at least one hike by the European
Central Bank by the end of 2026.
And with interest-rate setters in the U.S., Britain, euro
zone, Japan, Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Sweden this week
all holding their first meetings since the start of the war,
investors hope they will get some more colour on policymakers'
thinking.
The big question for officials is "how long does the
conflict last, (and) does the shock in energy prices - offset by
fiscal support - cause second-round inflation effects and
therefore require restrictive monetary policy," said Kenneth
Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe
Generale.
"Or are economies heading down a recessionary path and does
oil trigger a bear market in risk assets?"
Risk assets like stocks have fallen sharply since the war
began, but were somewhat steadier on Monday as investors tried
to process what might happen next.
Europe's broad STOXX 600 was flat on Monday, though it is
down 6% since the war began. U.S. shares have fallen less, the
S&P 500 is down 3.5%, and futures were up 0.5% in early
European trading.
Earlier in the day, Asia-Pacific stocks
nudged up 0.3%, helped by a rebound in South Korea. The
once-loved, tech-heavy KOSPI benchmark has been an epicentre of
selling globally since the war began, but even with Monday's 1%
gain, it is down 11% in March.
Chinese blue chips were flat after data showed
retail sales and industrial output for January and February
topped forecasts, while house prices continued to slip.
Top U.S. and Chinese officials are also meeting in Paris to
discuss potential deals in agriculture, critical minerals and
managed trade for Trump and Xi to consider when the U.S.
president visits Beijing.
ALL THE CENTRAL BANKS
And the dramatic move in central bank pricing has caused
major shifts in government bonds.
Ten-year Treasury yields were at 4.265%, a
fraction down on the day after having climbed 30 basis points
since the war began, while futures have sharply scaled back the
scope for future rate cuts.
The Fed is considered certain to hold on Wednesday and the
chance of an easing by June has fallen to just 26% from 69% a
month ago.
Rate-sensitive, shorter-dated yields have moved even more
dramatically and two-year German yields have risen 40 basis
points, while the equivalent British gilt yield has increased
nearly 60 bps.
A cautiously steady outcome is expected from the other
central bank meetings, excluding the Reserve Bank of Australia
which is seen likely to raise its cash rate a quarter point to
4.1% as it battles resurgent inflation at home.
The heightened volatility in markets has tended to benefit
the U.S. dollar as a store of liquidity. The U.S. is also a net
energy exporter, giving it a relative advantage over Europe and
much of Asia, which are net importers.
The dollar was trading a touch lower early on Monday, partly
in reaction to the report that shipping might be escorted
through the Strait of Hormuz.
The dollar eased 0.3% to 159.25 yen, just off a
20-month top of 159.75, with investors wary in case a break of
160.00 triggers more warnings of intervention from Japan.
The euro inched up 0.2% from near a seven-month low at
$1.1442, threatening a breach of major chart support
at $1.1392 that could unleash a retreat towards $1.1065.
Gold was down 0.5% at $4,996 an ounce, having so far
seen scant support as a safe haven or as a hedge against
inflation risks.