(Updates after start of European trading)
* Ceasefire strained as Iran claims Strait of Hormuz
closed
* Oil prices bounce after Wednesday's steep slide
* European shares dip after best day in 4 years
* Dollar steady ahead of US core price data
By Marc Jones and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY, April 9 (Reuters) - Share markets sagged
on Thursday as cracks quickly began to appear in the fragile
Gulf truce, nudging oil prices back up toward $100 a barrel and
reminding investors the inflationary fallout would last a long
while yet.
Crucially, there was scant sign that the Strait of Hormuz was
open in any meaningful way, with Iran flexing its control over
the vital oil artery and demanding tolls for safe passage.
President Donald Trump took to social media to declare U.S.
forces would remain in the Gulf until a deal was reached and
complied with, otherwise the "'Shootin' Starts,' bigger, and
better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."
Meanwhile, Israel has carried out its heaviest strikes on
Lebanon since its conflict with Iran-backed Hezbollah militia
began last month, killing more than 250 people on Wednesday.
As a result, Brent crude futures rose 2.5% to
$97.28 a barrel, U.S. WTI futures bounced 3.3% to $97.55
and the pan-European STOXX 600 index opened 0.2% lower
having leapt 3.7% on Wednesday following the ceasefire
announcement.
UBP's Head of Investment Services UK Peter Kinsella said the
moves showed markets remained focused on trading headlines,
although apart from the big swings in oil prices, he stressed
volatility in most of the main currencies was still limited.
"It is very difficult for investors as they are dealing
with a conflict where the protagonists don't even know what they
want," Kinsella said.
SPLUTTERING GERMANY
Europe's government bond yields - which drive the cost of
borrowing - were also nudging higher again in early trading
having plunged on Wednesday.
Data from Germany showed industrial production fell
unexpectedly in February, showing Europe's largest economy was
subdued and on course for another quarter of contraction even
before the Iran war.
Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei hadended 0.7%
lower after jumping 5.4% the previous session. South Korea
dipped 1.6%, following a leap of 6.8%.
Chinese blue chips also slipped 0.6%, while MSCI's
broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
eased 0.7%.
On Wall Street, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures
were both off around 0.4% ahead of their restart later.
INFLATION IS INEVITABLE
With oil prices still around 40% higher than pre-conflict,
an inflationary spike is about to show up in the hard data
across the globe.
Figures on U.S. core prices for February due later Thursday
are expected to show a chunky 0.4% rise for a second month, and
that was before the surge in energy costs.
State Street's PriceStats' inflation metrics meanwhile show
March has seen the biggest month-on-month increase in prices
since at least 2008 when its data series began, according to its
head of Macro Strategy Michael Metcalfe.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting on
Wednesday showed a growing number of members felt a rate hike
might be needed to contain inflation, though many hoped the next
move would still be a cut.
That tempered a rally in Treasuries, which proved modest
compared to the big gains seen in European debt marketson
Wednesday. Yields on U.S. 10-year notes sat at
4.296%, compared to 3.96% before the attack on Iran.
Fed fund futures imply only 6 basis points of easing for
the rest of this year, having given up on 50 basis points of
cuts since the end of February. Europe's money markets though
still, by contrast, price in at least two ECB rate hikes this
year.
"The committee broadly agreed that it was too early to act,
suggesting the Fed will likely remain on hold this year, in line
with our view," said analysts at JPMorgan in a note.
The shifting outlook for rates saw the dollar pare some of its
knee-jerk losses, with the dollar index at 99.06 and the
euro flat at $1.1660 and off its previous day's top of
$1.1721.
The dollar inched up to 158.93 yen, having fallen as
far as 157.89 at one stage on Wednesday.
In commodity markets, gold inched back to $4,713 an ounce
, after bouncing as high as $4,777 while European natural
gas prices rebounded to 45.65 euros per megawatt hour (MWh)
although the move was far more modest than in oil markets.