SINGAPORE, July 8 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs ( GS ) has raised
its three-, six- and 12-month return forecasts for the S&P 500,
citing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and continued
fundamental strength of major large-cap stocks as key drivers of
its positive outlook.
The Wall Street bank has revised its S&P 500 return
forecasts, projecting a 3% gain over three months and an 11%
gain over 12 months, targeting index levels of 6,400 and 6,900,
respectively.
"Earlier and deeper Fed easing and lower bond yields than we
previously expected, continued fundamental strength of the
largest stocks, and investors' willingness to look through
likely near-term earnings weakness support our revised S&P 500
forward P/E forecast of 22 times from 20.4 times," analysts said
in a note late on Monday.
For the index's six-month return, Goldman Sachs ( GS ) has raised
its forecast to +6%, projecting a year-end level of 6,600, and
up from its previous estimate of 6,100.
Wall Street closed at record highs last week, buoyed by
signs of resilience in the country's labour market, which defied
investor fears of a slowing economy.
After a selloff in April following U.S. President Donald
Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, stocks have
rebounded as hopes for trade deals and potential Federal Reserve
rate cuts eased investor uncertainty.
"Recent inflation data and corporate surveys indicate
less tariff pass-through so far than we expected," the analysts
said.
"However, we expect the digestion of tariffs to be a
gradual process, and large-cap companies appear to have some
buffer from inventories ahead of the increase in tariff rates."
The analysts maintained their earnings-per-share growth
forecasts for the S&P 500 at +7% for both 2025 and 2026, but
flagged that risks remain on both the upside and downside. They
plan to reassess these estimates following the second-quarter
earnings season.