July 31 (Reuters) - Euro zone and U.S. bond yields were on
track for their biggest monthly rise since March, with
long-dated borrowing costs rising faster than those at the short
end as investors focused on the longer-term implications of the
conflict in the Middle East.
Bond yields edged lower on Friday along with oil prices
however as more supplies flowed through crucial maritime
chokepoints, despite a lack of major breakthroughs in talks
between the U.S. and Iran.
Money markets indicated a more hawkish interest rate outlook
on both sides of the Atlantic this month, fuelling a bond
selloff and pushing yields higher as the conflict in the Middle
East reignited inflation fears.
Traders returned to fully pricing a European Central Bank
depo rate at 2.75% in early 2027, a level last seen at the
height of the Iran conflict, while quickly scaling back
expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The ECB raised interest rates to 2.25% in June before
pausing this month, while the Fed has remained on hold and is
expected to deliver two rate hikes by June next year, with a
first move in October almost fully priced in by markets.
German two-year bond yields, which are particularly
sensitive to interest rate expectations, fell 0.5 basis points
to 2.76% but were still on course for a 22-bps increase in July.
U.S. two-year Treasury yields were unchanged at 4.23%
and were set for a monthly rise of 9 bps.
Long-dated bonds underperformed in July, sending their
yields sharply higher as investors began to assess the
implications of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East,
including the prospect of increased fiscal spending, larger
budget deficits and a rising debt burden.
Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 1.5 basis points to 3.15%
, but was on track for a 28-bps increase this month.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
slipped 1.5 bps to 4.65% and was about to end July about 22.5
bps higher.
Elsewhere, Japan's borrowing costs were little changed with
the 10-year flat at 2.79% after the Bank of Japan
kept interest rates steady, signalling further rate hikes.