financetom
World
financetom
/
World
/
Government debt glut could rock markets in 2025, BIS says
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Government debt glut could rock markets in 2025, BIS says
Dec 10, 2024 4:26 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - The threat of soaring government debt supply destabilising financial markets has intensified, the world's top central banking advisory body said on Tuesday, as it urged policymakers to act swiftly to prevent economic damage.

Claudio Borio, head of the Bank for International Settlements' monetary and economic department, said he was on alert for a government debt glut causing bond market ructions that could spill over into other assets.

And while markets have not yet suffered so-called "bond vigilante" attacks, where debt investors send state borrowing costs sharply higher to force nations away from fiscal profligacy, policymakers should not wait for this to happen, he said.

"Financial markets are beginning to realise they will have to absorb these growing volumes of government debt," he said as the BIS published its latest quarterly report.

"It takes time for policymakers to adjust policies and if they wait for markets to wake up, it's going to be too late."

Large government budget deficits suggest that sovereign debt could rise by a third by 2028 to approach $130 trillion, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) financial services trade group.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tax cuts are expected to swell the nation's $36 trillion debt pile by almost $8 trillion, while the UK's new Labour government in its October budget raised previous five-year borrowing estimates by about 142 billion pounds ($181.55 billion).

Bond fund PIMCO said on Monday it plans to diversify its government bond exposure by buying outside the United States, where its outlook on long-term government debt is bearish due to a deteriorating fiscal profile.

The BIS report also cited political turmoil over France's budget deficit and expansionary policy in Japan as reasons for "the re-emergence of fiscal concerns."

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which influences price movements in sovereign, corporate and household debt worldwide, has risen by about 56 basis points (bps) since September, to around 4.22%.

Traders widely anticipate a Federal Reserve rate cut this month but the BIS report said there was a supply-demand imbalance in the Treasury market, with dealers holding record amounts of unsold U.S. government debt on their books.

With U.S. Treasury investors facing the twin perils of debt oversupply and stimulus spending boosting inflation, there were "more reasons to be worried now" than when the BIS cautioned about sovereign debt earlier this year, Borio said.

The depth and liquidity of the $28 trillion Treasury market could insulate it from a sudden sharp rise in debt yields for some time, Borio said.

"But it does mean that once (warning signs) show up, the impact on the global economy is bigger," he added.

Elsewhere in its report, the BIS noted increasing uncertainty about where global interest rates would settle as major central banks embark on cuts but the global economy remains resilient, buoyed by strong U.S. growth.

Global credit conditions remain "unusually accommodative," the report noted, and U.S. bank lending standards have loosened after the Nov. 5 election while Wall Street stocks rallied.

The BIS noted that higher volatility in currency markets had reduced the incentive for traders to rebuild their positions following a sharp unwind in August of so-called carry traders that sparked ructions across world markets.

($1 = 0.7822 pounds)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Oil prices inch up on geopolitical risks, easing tariff worries
Oil prices inch up on geopolitical risks, easing tariff worries
Jul 17, 2025
LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices edged up on Thursday on signs of easing trade tensions, stronger than expected economic data from the world's top oil consumers and renewed risks in the Middle East. Brent crude futures were up 17 cents, or around 0.3%, to $68.67 a barrel at 0856 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 31 cents, or...
Dollar recovers from Fed fright, stocks cheer earnings
Dollar recovers from Fed fright, stocks cheer earnings
Jul 17, 2025
LONDON (Reuters) - A healthy crop of earnings helped European stocks bust out of a four-day losing streak on Thursday, while the dollar made gains after U.S. President Donald Trump quashed fresh speculation that he was about to fire Fed head Jerome Powell. Europe's STOXX 600 made a solid start as record orders at Swiss engineering giant ABB and record...
GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar recovers from Fed fright, stocks cheer earnings
GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar recovers from Fed fright, stocks cheer earnings
Jul 17, 2025
* Dollar recovers after Fed chief firing rumours sparked selloff * European shares rise after four-day drop * U.S. retail sales and Netflix ( NFLX ) and GE results due later By Marc Jones LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - A healthy crop of earnings helped European stocks bust out of a four-day losing streak on Thursday, while the dollar made...
METALS-Rising inventories and a stronger dollar keep copper under pressure
METALS-Rising inventories and a stronger dollar keep copper under pressure
Jul 17, 2025
(Adds analyst comment, updates prices, changes dateline) By Polina Devitt LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Copper prices edged down on Thursday as the dollar strengthened and stocks in the Asian warehouses registered with the London Metal Exchange kept on rising in anticipation of the U.S. 50% import tariff for the metal. Three-month copper prices on the LME fell 0.2% to...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved