LONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Below are five charts showing
the volatile response of global financial markets to the war
between Israel and Hamas over the last two years.
1/TAKING STOCK
Israeli stocks and those of the world's big weapons makers
have surged since the October 7, 2023 attacks.
Defence stocks were already on the rise due to Russia's
invasion of Ukraine and rising risks elsewhere, but they
accelerated sharply as the conflict in Gaza grew and are now
more than 120% higher than they were when Hamas attacked Israel.
MSCI's Israel stocks index is up more than
80% too - roughly 30 percentage points more than the main global
stocks benchmarks - the shekel is up
against the dollar following the greenback's slump this year,
while some of Israel's banks have kept up with the defence
rally.
2/CREDIT RATING CUTS
The cost of the war meant Israel suffered its first ever credit
rating downgrades in 2024, starting with Moody's four months
after the Hamas attacks, followed by S&P in April and Fitch in
August that year.
At the depths of conflict, credit default swap markets -
where investors go to hedge risk - even priced the possibility
that Israel could lose its investment grade status and get
downgraded to the 'junk' category of sovereign debt.
Those worries have receded this year, though, and CDS prices
currently point to no further downgrades.
3/ECONOMIC DAMAGE
Israel's $580 billion economy was also slowed drastically by
the war. Last October the country's finance ministry estimated
it had already cost it around 14 billion shekels ($3.75
billion), although that will be far higher now.
Economic growth ground to a near standstill last year but it is
expected to be a more robust 2.5% this year according to the
country's central bank, and could be more than 5% next year if a
"peace dividend" materialises.
4/OIL AND GAS
Oil rose above $90 a barrel and European natural gas
prices saw their biggest jump in six months in the
immediate aftermath of the 2023 Hamas attacks, but the market
quickly shrugged it off and Brent dropped back to $75 by the end
of that year.
Escalating tensions with Iran then pushed oil higher again in
early 2024. That reversed too when it turned into little more
than a skirmish although there was a more significant, albeit
also brief, spike this year when U.S. forces struck Iran's three
main nuclear sites.
5/GOLD RUSH
Safe-haven gold rose nearly 3% after the Hamas attacks. It
was its biggest weekly jump in six months, and gold hasn't
looked back since.
Though there are plenty of additional reasons driving it now
too, the fact is that move marked the start of a remarkable 120%
rally that has just pushed bullion past $4,000 a troy ounce for
the first time.