June 17 (Reuters) - French stocks and the euro tumbled
last week as political uncertainty in France and the possibility
of a far-right-dominated parliament spooked investors, while the
gap between French and German government borrowing costs soared.
Marine Le Pen's eurosceptic National Rally is leading in
opinion polls following President Emmanuel Macron's surprise
decision to call a snap vote, while France's left-wing parties
have formed a new alliance to fight the election.
The worry for markets is that a far-right French prime
minister could pursue high-spending "France first" economic
policies, adding to the country's large debt pile. Some
investors have started to talk of the risk of the euro zone
breaking up, although that remains a way off.
Here are four charts showing how markets have been reacting.
French stocks have sold off hard. The blue-chip CAC 40 is at
its lowest since January, having shed 6% last week - its biggest
weekly drop in over two years.
"There's an element of 'shoot first, ask questions later'
with regards to France," said Tom O'Hara, a portfolio manager on
the European equities team at Janus Henderson Investors.
"We're focused on global companies that are listed in
Europe. Certainly, those that are more domestically exposed,
there are going be more question marks about."
Midcaps, which typically have more exposure to the
underlying national economy, fell 9%, the biggest weekly drop
since March 2020's pandemic turmoil.
Banks have been particularly hard hit. BNP Paribas
, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale
all lost over 10% last week, losing roughly $19
billion in market cap since the previous Friday's close, based
on LSEG data.
French government bonds are also under pressure.
The difference between French and German 10-year borrowing
costs rose to 78 basis points on Friday, the
highest since 2017 on an intraday basis and on track for a
closing level not seen since the euro zone crisis of 2012.
The spread reflects the premium investors demand to hold
French government bonds rather than German bonds, the euro zone
benchmark.
The wider spreads could provide a "tactical buying
opportunity," said analysts at UBS, "but we expect investors to
take a wait-and-see attitude until there is more clarity on
electoral alliances, as well as fiscal policies in the case of a
cohabitation - a situation where the prime minister and
president are from different parties."
It now costs the French government more to borrow money for
10 years than it does the Portuguese government for the first
time since at least 2005, according to LSEG Datastream
.
Spreads are also widening due to a general rush for safe
haven assets in Europe and that includes German government
bonds. The yield on German Bunds dropped 24 bps last week, its
biggest weekly drop since December.
"It is going to be a long month for the euro," said Chris
Turner, global head of markets at ING.
The currency has dropped 1% against the dollar, British
pound and Swiss franc last week alone, and is at its lowest
against the pound in almost two years.
Markets are braced for further sharp moves. One-month
options volatility for the euro against both the dollar and the
pound has jumped to its highest in over a year.
"With opinion polls taking such a toll on the euro and
presumably more polls due..., we expect investors will want to
manage their euro exposure carefully," said Turner, who reckons
the euro could drop towards $1.06 this week, which would be its
lowest since November. It's currently at $1.070.
The cost of insuring France's debt against default has also
rocketed.
France's five-year credit default swap widened to 38 basis
points (bps) on Friday, having been just 24 bps as of market
close on June 7, a week before.
These levels are the highest since the pandemic, and prior
to that, since the 2017 presidential election, when markets
feared Le Pen might be elected France's president.