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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Chips and trouble in bond land
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GRAPHIC-Take Five: Chips and trouble in bond land
May 26, 2025 1:09 PM

May 23 (Reuters) - Chip behemoth Nvidia ( NVDA ) is closing the

U.S. earnings season, as investors digest the appearance of the

bond vigilantes in the usually rather sedate corner of long-term

government debt.

Central banks in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea hold

rate meetings as inflation data from around the globe provides

evidence of the economic fallout from the tectonic shifts in

U.S. trade policy.

Here's your look at the week ahead from Dhara Ranasinghe,

Sam Indyk and Sinead Cruise in London, Lewis Krauskopf in New

York and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo.

1/ ENDING ON A CHIP

Results from Nvidia ( NVDA ) - a behemoth in the artificial

intelligence field that has become a sparring ground in global

trade and geopolitics - are due on Wednesday and round out the

Q1 U.S. reporting season.

Nvidia ( NVDA ) is part of the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps, whose

shares have rebounded sharply since early April after a rough

start to the year.

Its AI chips have helped catapult the company to become one

of the world's largest by market value and given it heft in

world equity indexes. But after two years of massive gains, the

stock's performance has levelled off so far in 2025.

Nvidia's ( NVDA ) report could test the stock market rebound, with

the S&P 500 approaching record highs after teetering on the

brink of a bear market last month.

2/ HOME TO ROOST

It's no surprise that government debt levels have surged

given relentless pressure to raise spending on everything from

defence to healthcare, aging populations and climate change.

But the consequences of governments not doing enough to

improve their finances are coming home to roost.

Just days after the U.S. lost its top-notch triple-A credit

rating with Moody's, a $16 billion sale of 20-year U.S.

Treasuries saw soft demand and Japan had its worst auction

result since 2012 - sending 30-year government bond yields to

record highs.

A corner of the bond market not known for its volatility -

long-dated government bonds - has suddenly become a hot spot. In

addition to surging Japan government bond yields, 30-year U.S.

yields are back above 5%, dragging others higher.

Japan sells more long-dated debt in the days to come. Watch

those auctions. The bond vigilantes are back.

3/ HANKERING TO HIKE

Unbowed by aggressive and unpredictable U.S. tariffs - or

even the recent melt-up in bond yields - the Bank of Japan has

kept a very calm demeanour in saying it plans to keep raising

interest rates if prices gain in line with forecasts.

A surge in rice prices has driven upward momentum. The

bellwether Tokyo consumer price index is due on May 30,

frontrunning the nationwide reading by three weeks. Figures a

month ago scaled a two-year high.

Australia's inflation data on Wednesday will be watched

after the central bank cut rates in May and signalled an

openness to additional easing, with cooling prices giving policy

makers room to do so.

New Zealand's central bank is seen trimming the cash rate by

another quarter point the same day. On Thursday, the Bank of

Korea looks ready to cut amid concerns about growing economic

headwinds.

4/ PRESSURE GAUGE

Inflation is returning to the top of policy makers' agenda

elsewhere too.

The Fed's targeted inflation metric, Personal Consumption

Expenditures, for April, due on May 30, could paint a clearer

picture of the impact U.S. tariffs are having.

April was a volatile month after U.S. President Donald

Trump's tariff onslaught on April 2, but recent consumer and

producer prices data have not flashed inflationary warning signs

just yet.

Price pressures were clearly playing on the Fed's collective

minds when it kept rates steady this month, with a warning that

the risk of higher inflation had increased, dampening

expectations for near-term rate cuts.

The euro zone's biggest economies - France and Germany -

report consumer prices data on Tuesday and Friday, bloc-wide

figures follow the week after.

5/ MEGA MAY

With fears for the U.S.'s massive debt pile quashing a

relief rally in its assets, investors are planning how they

might defend portfolios from more wild swings in the world's

largest economy.

Top money managers at JPMorgan ( JPM ) and Goldman Sachs ( GS )

are laying on more hedges to diffuse some of the hits to

U.S. Treasuries and stocks. Others are using the dog days of May

to sell down with greater conviction, diversifying exposures by

pumping more money into Europe.

European equity exchange-traded funds have pulled in 34

billion euros ($38.6 billion) of cash over the year to May 16 -

four times the 8.2 billion euros put in U.S. equity funds,

Morningstar data shows.

By comparison, in 2024, net flows into U.S. equity funds in

Europe had dominated by a ratio of more than 8:1 over

locally-focused products.

(Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, compiled by Karin

Strohecker; Editing by Alex Richardson)

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