(Updates after weekend election in Chile, adds payrolls data
release date)
Nov 17 (Reuters) - The task of clearing the huge backlog
of shutdown-delayed U.S. data begins, the world's most valuable
company Nvidia ( NVDA ) publishes its results and new inflation numbers
will keep Europe's central banks on their toes.
Over in Asia, new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's
fiscal policy is taking shape, and Chile holds an election in
Latin America where pollsters are predicting another step to the
right.
Here's your market week ahead from Dhara Ranasinghe and
Amanda Cooper in London, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Lewis
Krauskopf and Rodrigo Campos in New York.
1/CLEARING THE BACKLOG
U.S. government number crunchers begin the task of
shovelling out the backlog of data not released during
Washington's unprecedented 43-day shutdown.
Traders will be getting the non-farm payrolls report for
September on Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has
announced. The original release was planned for October 3,
shortly after the shutdown began.
Private data that has been published has suggested the
labour market continues to weaken. That supports the case for a
December Federal Reserve rate cut. Officials are warning,
though, that some data may have been lost forever, meaning the
economic fog might take time to clear.
2/AI CATCHING
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) quarterly report on Wednesday will be a
critical test for the high-flying AI trade that has started to
make some spluttering noises in recent weeks.
The semiconductor giant became the world's first $5 trillion
company last month. It has lost a bit since, but with a
staggering 8% weighting in the S&P 500 and major clout in many
global indexes, it can easily sway markets on its own.
The AI bellwether's forecasts and the broader industry
perspective will have ramifications for the wider tech
ecosystem. It is going to either ease or feed those nagging
investor concerns that this is already the next big bubble.
3/LEVERS OF POWER
After initially suggesting it would leave monetary policy
largely to its central bank, Japan's new government is now
signalling a more hands-on approach.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is looking to loosen the
fiscal reins and urging the Bank of Japan to go slow on raising
rates, while new Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has argued
inflation is yet to sustainably hit the BoJ's 2% target.
The bank still looks primed for a hike in December, although
Governor Kazuo Ueda has been cautious about pulling the trigger.
Consumer price data due on November 21 should offer clues, but
it could well be the crumpled yen that holds the key.
If its weakness affects politically sensitive food and
energy prices, Takaichi may have no choice but to accept some
speedy rate hikes.
4/HAPPY PLACE
It must be nice to be the European Central Bank right now.
President Christine Lagarde says it is "in a good place" with
interest rates and money markets having switched to autopilot,
pricing in no move at all next year.
The coming week brings a raft of October inflation numbers,
for both individual countries and the euro zone as a whole. Core
consumer inflation was 2.4% in September, up from 2.3% in August
but down from 2.7% last September.
The headline number has stayed around the ECB's 2% target
for most of the year, however, and if the trade-weighted euro's
5.5% 2025 rise starts to drag it lower at any
point Frankfurt would have room to cut again.
But the jury is out for now.
5/HOT CHILE
The first round of Chile's presidential election on Sunday
was won by the leftist coalition candidate Jeannette Jara. But
pollsters expect the race to now swing to the right in the
run-off in a month's time after far-right candidate Jose Antonio
Kast secured a strong second place and three other right-wing
runners scooped up plenty of votes, too.
A win for Kast in the December 14 head-to-head versus Jara -
assuming those other right-wing votes migrate to him - would put
in place a Chilean administration further to the right than any
since the Augusto Pinochet dictatorship of the 1980s.
Almost as important is the concurrent congressional
election. A win in both houses would mark the first such result
since the 1950s and most likely be lapped up by investors who
expect corporate tax cuts if Kast does go on to win the
presidency.
The peso has strengthened nearly 7% year-to-date and
equities in both dollar and peso terms have soared over 40% -
and traders are eyeing where it goes next.
(Graphics by Pasit Kongunakornkul. Compiled by Marc Jones.
Editing by Mark Potter)