Aug 16 (Reuters) - Central bank chiefs congregate in

Jackson Hole for their annual retreat, U.S. Democrats choose

their presidential candidate and energy markets ricochet due to

a confluence of Middle East and Russia-Ukraine tensions, while

global PMIs are due.

Here's your guide to the week ahead in financial markets

from Ira Iosebashvili and Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Naomi

Rovnick and Nina Chestney in London, and Kevin Buckland in

Tokyo.

1/ JACKSON HOLE

Central bankers from around the globe gather in Jackson

Hole, Wyoming, from Thursday for the Fed's annual conference to

chart the way forward for monetary policy. In focus this year

are labour markets - a shift away from last year's inflation

theme.

U.S. Fed chief Jerome Powell gets a chance to fine-tune his

message before September's monetary policy meeting. Most market

participants believe the Fed will begin cutting rates next

month, after months of keeping them elevated to tamp down

inflation.

How big the world's foremost central bank will go, and how

deeply it will eventually cut, remain open questions: a spate of

recent alarming economic data - including unemployment numbers -

pushed investors to ramp up bets on a 50 basis point cut in

September.

2/ MIXED PICTURE

The outlook for global growth is another piece of the

puzzle. Markets are febrile and struggling to assess the

economic outlook as business activity softens but inflation

stays above central banks' target levels.

Purchasing managers' indexes deliver a real-time snapshot of

economic activity and - with most of them out on Thursday - will

provide the next set of clues. July's PMIs suggested an economic

slowdown combined with persistent inflation, showing why central

banks are in a bind.

U.S. manufacturing activity weakened and German numbers were

surprisingly dour, indicating Europe's economic powerhouse is

contracting. But manufacturers' input prices in advanced

economies hit an 18-month high.

Inflation will dictate the pace and depth of future rate

cuts. A repeat of July's dour PMI trends might mean monetary

easing happens more slowly than markets would like.

3/ IRATE OVER RATES

The Bank of Japan's sudden pivot from uber-dove to

ultra-hawk has put it in the firing line for lawmakers, after

peppering its surprise rate hike at the end of July with hints

of more to come.

One unexpected result was the steepest rout for Japanese

stocks since 1987's infamous Black Monday, amid a destabilizing

spike in the yen against the dollar.

Politicians set to grill BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and his

peers on Aug. 23 will do well to remember some of their most

senior figures were leaning on the central bank to help reverse

the yen's exceptional weakness in the run-up to the move.

Recent macroeconomic indicators at least have been on the

BOJ's side, showing a stronger-than-expected rebound in growth

amid a recovery for consumption.

A potentially bigger test comes the day of the special

parliamentary session, with the release of the latest consumer

price figures.

4/ DEMOCRATS ON DISPLAY

The U.S. presidential race heats up again with the Democrats

aiming to generate fresh momentum for the candidacy of Vice

President Kamala Harris at the party's convention in Chicago.

Since her late entry into the race after President Joe Biden

stepped aside, Harris has galvanized Democrats and erased the

lead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in some opinion polls,

edging ahead of Trump in some betting markets ahead of the Nov.

5 vote.

The four-day convention kicks off on Monday with a series of

high-profile Democrats expected to give speeches geared toward

rallying support for Harris.

The race is tight and investors are hoping to learn more

about her policy positions.

Harris has been at pains to emphasize she would never

interfere in Fed independence - a view that contrasts sharply

with that of the Republican nominee and former president, who

said presidents should have a say on Fed decisions.

5/ TENSIONS

A confluence of risk factors has pushed and pulled global

energy markets in recent days, and there is little sense that

will abate. Concern that conflict is spreading in the Middle

East and threatening supply from the region has lifted

international crude prices above $80 a barrel.

At the same time, worries about the strength of demand,

particularly in China, are somewhat limiting oil's gains.

European wholesale gas prices meanwhile have been volatile,

with the spectre of Russian gas supply disruption on a transit

route via Ukraine amplifying Middle East concerns.

Markets are concerned that heavy fighting near the Russian

town of Sudzha, where Russian gas flows into Ukraine, could

result in a sudden stop to transit flows via the war-torn nation

before a five-year deal with Russia's Gazprom expires.

(Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Vineet

Sachdev; Compiled by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Jan Harvey)