April 24 (Reuters) - Next week combines the big three
obsessions for investors right now - the war in Iran, the path
of interest rates and the AI boom.
Four of the world's top central banks meet, wondering how
long they can realistically look through the spike in global
energy prices due to the blocked Strait of Hormuz, while five of
the so-called "Magnificent Seven" U.S. tech giants report their
earnings.
Here's all you need to know about the coming week in
financial markets by Marc Jones and Dhara Ranasinghe in London,
Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Rae Wee in Singapore.
1/CORRIDOR OF POWER
Next week, like the eight weeks that have gone before it,
will be dominated by whether progress can be made in the Iran
war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint
that is now the key power-play in the conflict.
Iran has been flaunting its tightened grip over the shipping
corridor and though there has been some relief that Washington
and Tehran and Israel and Lebanon have extended respective
ceasefires, the fact oil is well over $100 a barrel again shows
just what the markets think.
Diplomacy, any sign of back-channel talks and U.S. President
Donald Trump and Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba
Khamenei's social media posts will all continue to drive
volatility, especially with Trump now saying he will not be
rushed into a deal as he wants something that is "everlasting".
The prolonged conflict is also deepening the fissure between
the U.S. and NATO. Trump has repeatedly criticised the
alliance's members for failing to support his attacks on Iran
and Washington is now weighing punishing "difficult" countries,
such as Spain, according to officials.
2/KA-POWELL!
The world's most influential central bank, the Federal
Reserve, is expected to keep U.S. interest rates steady on
Wednesday, meaning it will mostly be about its signals for the
months ahead given most economists think cuts are off the table
for now.
An intriguing subplot is whether this will be Jerome
Powell's last meeting in charge, or even if he attends in the
future, given his broader stint as a Fed governor - which runs
until 2028 - is also under attack.
The 73-year-old's term as Fed chair is due to end next month
so this should be his swansong. But a key U.S. senator is vowing
to block Trump's pick for Powell's successor - former Fed
governor Kevin Warsh - until a probe into Powell's renovations
of the Fed's headquarters is dropped.
There will be some key data to digest too. First-quarter GDP
and then March personal consumption expenditures price index
(PCE) - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - are both due out
on Thursday.
3/BIG TECH'S BIG WEEK
Reports from five of the so-called "Magnificent Seven"
megacap companies headline a deluge of first-quarter earnings
next week.
It comes at a time where almost unshakable investor optimism
about AI-driven profits is providing a critical support for
near-record high equity indexes.
On Wednesday alone, reports are due from Alphabet,
Microsoft ( MSFT ), Amazon ( AMZN ) and Meta - four
"hyperscalers" now spending billions on data centres and other
high tech infrastructure.
iPhone maker Apple ( AAPL ) reports the day after, hot on
the heels of news that it has picked longtime hardware boss John
Ternus to take over the CEO reins from Tim Cook, 15 years after
he took over from Apple's ( AAPL ) co-founder Steve Jobs.
It is not just tech though. More than a third of the S&P 500
are reporting next week, including weight-loss drugmaker Eli
Lilly ( LLY ), oil major Exxon Mobil ( XOM ) and credit card
giant Visa.
4/ OPTIONALITY
Both the European Central Bank and Bank of England are
tipped to leave their respective 2% and 3.75% key interest rates
steady on Thursday, having both deliberately dampened bets of
pre-emptive hikes over the last fortnight.
The shaky Iran war ceasefire has earned a bit of breathing
space of sorts, but with oil already back above $100 again,
money markets still anticipate both will have hiked twice before
the year is out.
Optionality will be the watchword. ECB chief Christine
Lagarde will be pressed on just how likely a pre-summer increase
is. She certainly will not want a repeat of the hike-too-early
error another French ECB chief, Jean-Claude Trichet, oversaw
just before the eruption of the euro zone crisis.
For the BoE in London, Governor Andrew Bailey has already
warned markets they are getting ahead of themselves and given
how nervy domestic politics is making gilt markets, he is
walking a tightrope too.
5/GOING SLOW
The Bank of Japan completes the list of major central banks
in action. Its meeting on Tuesday will start the procession and,
just like in the U.S. and Europe, what had appeared to be a
window for a rate hike, now looks like another one to sit on its
hands.
Sources have told Reuters Kazuo Ueda and co are likely to
need more time to assess the fallout from the Middle East war,
but observers expect them to leave the door wide open for a hike
in June.
Some are worried that they may be getting behind the curve.
Even the head of the Asian Development Bank has warned that the
yen could come under further pressure if markets think the BOJ
is being too slow given the inflationary risks.
For now the Japanese currency continues to languish near 160
to the dollar. That is a level investors have long viewed
as a potential trigger point for FX market intervention. They
are still waiting though.
(Graphics by Prinz Magtulis; Compiled by Marc Jones; Editing by
Alison Williams)