Aug 5 (Reuters) - From massive U.S. tech stocks to
bitcoin, a spasm of economic worries is forcing an unwind of the
year's most popular trades, leaving investors to determine how
much more downside could lay ahead.
The rout has sparked some stunning market moves: the S&P 500
is down over 5% since last Wednesday, set for its biggest
three-day drop in more than two years. Japan's Nikkei
has tumbled nearly 20% while bitcoin has slid 15%.
Meanwhile, popular safe-haven assets such as U.S. government
bonds and the Swiss franc have surged.
Some market participants have pointed out that equity
weakness often provides a normal reset, especially for a market
that had charged ahead for months with little pause. Market
pullbacks of 5% or more in the S&P 500 have occurred an average
of three times a year since 1936, according to BofA Global
Research.
Others, however, believe there is more volatility to come,
and urge caution.
"Too much leverage in the global financial system, with
Japanese yen strength and overdone Treasury yield declines,
(are) a key to the unwind," Bill Gross, former head of bond
giant PIMCO and a closely followed market commentator, said in
an email to Reuters. "I'm not buying the small recovery from
morning bottoms. Not selling either. Markets (are) too
volatile."
Big tech stocks are one area that could be a source of
further selling. Even with recent losses, the tech-heavy Nasdaq
100 is up 7% this year. While that run has been fueled by
strong earnings earlier in the year and excitement over
artificial intelligence, it has also made many of the stocks
richly valued and drew comparisons to the dotcom bubble that
imploded more than two decades ago.
Valuations remain stretched, even after a recent drop: The
S&P 500 was trading at 20.5 times forward 12-month earnings
estimates last week, compared with its long-term average of
15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.
Importantly, the Magnificent Seven megacap stocks last month
accounted for one-third of the S&P 500, making their fate
closely tied to the trajectory of broader markets.
"We would argue that positioning has been a big driver of
recent market moves," said Mohit Kumar, chief economist for
Europe at Jefferies. "U.S. equities, particularly the tech
sector, was over-owned and some froth needed to be cleared."
Saturday's earnings report from legendary investor Warren
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has also done little to calm the
market's tech concerns: The conglomerate sold about half its
stake in Apple ( AAPL ) and let its cash pile soar to $277
billion in the second quarter. Berkshire often lets cash build
up when it can't find whole businesses or individual stocks to
buy at fair prices.
Another source of volatility has been the unwind of a
popular trade in which investors borrowed in Japanese yen to
fund bets on a broad range of risky assets, from stocks to
high-yielding global currencies. The Japanese yen surged to its
highest against the dollar since January.
Jean Boivin, an economist at asset manager BlackRock,
said the carry trade was "an anchor in global markets" which was
shaken when the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates last week: a
move that ended eight years of negative interest rates and
spurred the carry trade reversal.
"As we get confirmation that the Bank of Japan is not on a
very hawkish path, we will see calm coming back into the global
markets," Boivin said.
A lack of major economic data releases until the consumer
price report on Aug. 14 could keep markets on edge in coming
days.
Still, some market participants are more than happy to buy
on the cheap. Indeed, history is firmly on the side of dip
buyers.
Take the Nasdaq Composite, which slipped into a
correction - defined as a 10% drop or more from an all-time high
- last week. Over the past 44 years, the index has slipped into
correction territory after hitting a new high 24 times, or about
once every two years, according to a Reuters analysis of LSEG
data. In two-thirds of these cases, the index traded higher a
month after entering correction territory.
"Sell-offs that manifest themselves through wild swings in
the currency markets are sharp and swift, but usually very short
lived," Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris Financial Group,
said in written commentary. "Some say this is overdue; I say use
this downturn to pick up some deals."