* Portfolio investors' share of EM debt has doubled to
80% in past 20 years, IMF says
* Sudden outflows could trigger sharp currency drops and
widen sovereign spreads, IMF cautions
* Fund urges stronger institutions, higher reserves, and
sustainable debt to mitigate volatility risks
By Libby George
LONDON, April 7 (Reuters) - Emerging market nations now
get the bulk of their foreign financing from the likes of hedge
funds, pension funds and insurers, leaving them vulnerable to
rapid outflows during crises, the International Monetary Fund
said in a report.
The share of the cash flowing into emerging market debt from
portfolio investors has doubled over the past 20 years to 80%,
the report found, as banks backed away from lending following
the 2008 financial crisis. Since then, emerging markets have
received cumulative inflows of close to $4 trillion, according
to the report.
In a chapter of its Global Financial Stability report
released on Tuesday, the IMF said this source of money
"significantly benefits emerging markets", as ample global
liquidity had allowed them to raise money with longer-term and
lower-cost debt.
However, it also warned that portfolio investors had become
even more skittish since 2008-and prone to pull their cash
quickly when global financial conditions shift.
Countries and companies relying on them are "particularly
vulnerable to global financial shocks", the report said.
Hedge funds and investment funds were far more reactive to
risk than other portfolio investors, it noted, and warned that
the risks were amplified in emerging nations with shallower
financial markets and more limited policy capacity.
"A sudden drop in these flows could intensify external
financing pressures, widen corporate and sovereign spreads,
and trigger sharp currency depreciations."
The IMF estimated that external portfolio debt liabilities
averaged about 15% of gross domestic product in emerging
markets. Portfolio equity liabilities averaged around 7% of GDP,
but "represent an economically meaningful share of stock market
capitalization in some emerging markets."
Foreign portfolio holdings are particularly large for the
likes of Hungary's forint currency, which propelled it to 20%
gains against the U.S. dollar last year.
The forint has wilted since the Iran war began in late
February, with money flows into emerging markets falling after
more than a year of stellar performance.
The IMF added that cross-border private credit and
stablecoin flows into emerging markets were also "expanding
rapidly", with the latter closely tied to crypto market
dynamics.
In order to limit the outflows of portfolio funds, the Fund
urged countries to improve institutional quality, build better
buffers such as foreign exchange reserves and ensure public debt
remains sustainable.