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INDIA BONDS-India bond yields seen little changed, all eyes on Fed decision
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INDIA BONDS-India bond yields seen little changed, all eyes on Fed decision
Dec 16, 2024 7:01 PM

MUMBAI, Dec 17 (Reuters) - Indian government bond yields

are expected to be largely unchanged on Tuesday, with the

benchmark yield in touching distance of a key level, as

investors' focus remains on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary

policy decision.

The 10-year yield is likely to move between

6.73% and 6.76%, a trader with a private bank said, compared

with its previous close of 6.7430%.

"Benchmark bond should find some buying support at around

6.75% level, and direction on either side of this level would be

visible only after the Federal Reserve's monetary policy

decision," the trader said.

The Fed's decision is due on Wednesday. While the central

bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis

points, markets are fearing an uncertain outlook going into

2025.

The Fed is expected to say it is in no rush to cut rates

further, even though inflation remains above its 2% annual

target, and the labour market remains relatively strong,

analysts have said.

The bond market will also focus on the Fed's quarterly

economic projections, including rate forecasts, also known as

the dot plot, which had showed a policy rate of 3.4% by the end

of 2025 in September.

Inflation in the world's largest economy was in line with

estimates, further clouding the rate cut trajectory for the

upcoming year.

Shorter-tenure U.S. yields edged higher, while those on the

longer end were flattish. The 10-year yield remained around the

4.40% mark in Asia hours.

The odds of a 25 bps cut this week stand at over 97%, but

the odds of a reduction in January are just around 17%,

according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Meanwhile, minutes of the Reserve Bank of India's December

meeting are due on Friday and could provide more clarity on

policymakers' thinking about interest rate trajectory.

KEY INDICATORS:

** Brent crude futures 0.1% higher at $73.95 per

barrel, after easing 0.8% in the previous session

** Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 4.3908%;

two-year yield was at 4.2406%

** Thirteen Indian states to raise 203.25 billion rupees

($2.39 billion) via sale of bonds

** RBI to conduct three-day variable rate repo auction for

500 billion rupees

($1 = 84.8890 Indian rupees)

(Reporting by Dharamraj Dhutia; Editing by Varun H K)

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