MUMBAI, June 2 (Reuters) - Foreign investors sold Indian
government bonds included in global indexes for a second
straight month in May, driven by profit-taking and currency
volatility rather than a change in sentiment towards the
country, several investors said.
Foreign investors offloaded 123.2 billion rupees ($1.44
billion) of Indian bonds under the Fully Accessible Route in
May, the highest since its 2020 launch, after selling 111.4
billion rupees in April.
They have invested 1.20 trillion rupees in Indian bonds till
March since June 2024, when Indian bonds were included in the
JPMorgan ( JPM ) emerging debt market index.
"The recent outflows are best viewed through the lens of
profit-taking after a strong run, rather than a shift in
fundamental conviction," said Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager at
Eastspring Investments, which manages $256 billion of assets.
Some headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and
uncertainty over the new RBI governor's stance on FX policy, may
have also led investors to trim exposure and rebalance
portfolios, he added.
The Indian rupee has grown more volatile over the past six
months since new RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra took charge in
December, with implied volatility averaging 4.26%, up from 2.24%
during the final six months of former governor Shaktikanta Das's
tenure.
A rise in U.S. Treasury yields due to fear of a wide
budget gap and inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's
tariff policies and a drop in Indian rate due to declining
inflation have also narrowed the yield differential between the
two markets.
The spread between Indian and U.S. bond yields have
collapsed to 21-year low of around 170 bps now, from 250 bps
early November.
"This (selling in Indian bonds) was not driven by skepticism
towards India, but rather by shifts in global macro sentiment,"
Jean-Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets debt at TT
International Asset Management said, that manages $3.15 billion
of assets across EM.
"We do not see this (outflows) as a game changer. Sentiment
towards Indian bonds is likely to improve as inflation continues
to decline and there is more fiscal space," Sambor said, adding
he remains constructive on rupee bonds and believes appetite for
local currency bonds is returning.
($1 = 85.3790 Indian rupees)