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Mid-East escalation brings geopolitical risks back to fore
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Tension gives battered safe-haven dollar a boost
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Investors watch for sustained oil price rallies
(Updates prices and commentary from U.S. investors)
By Sinéad Carew and Amanda Cooper
NEW YORK/LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) -
U.S. investors on Friday sought refuge in safe-haven assets
like the dollar and gold, as oil prices surged after Iran
retaliated against Israel's biggest-ever military strike against
the major crude producer.
Iran launched airstrikes at Israel
hours after unprecedented Israeli strikes, stoking some
fears of a broader regional conflagration. Explosions were heard
on Friday in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, the country's two biggest
cities. Earlier, Israel blasted Iran's huge Natanz underground
nuclear site and killed its top military commanders.
Investors said the markets would probably muddle through
the latest hostilities unless Iranian oil facilities were
attacked or other countries are drawn into the war. Worries
about possible disruptions to oil shipments prompted crude
prices to spike as much as 14%. Oil futures settled 7% higher on
the day.
"We're entering the next phase of the conflict here with
the Iranian response," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer
at Plante Moran Financial Advisors in Southfield, Michigan.
The money manager said he expected "a bit more of a
flight-to-quality trade if we see stocks sell off further" and
that this could benefit gold and Treasuries.
"The question is still how long will this persist? How
intense will it be? Will other parties be drawn in? From a big
picture economic perspective, I don't think it changes anything
materially," he said.
Safe-haven gold prices rose more than 1% and Wall
Street's three major equity indexes ended down more than 1%.
The outbreak of war brought oil prices into focus. Iran
is among the world's largest exporters of crude and borders the
Strait of Hormuz, a major choke-point for crude tankers through
which roughly a fifth of global consumption flows and which Iran
has previously threatened to close in retaliation to Western
pressure.
As oil prices surged and investors sought safe havens,
U.S. government bond yields rose on bets that higher energy
prices could stoke inflation.
Still, despite the spike in crude prices, the global
benchmark Brent remained well under $80 a barrel. Irene Tunkel,
Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at BCA Research said she does not
see long-term U.S. market implications unless prices soar above
$100 a barrel, which would hurt consumer spending.
She said that was unlikely unless oil infrastructure is
destroyed or "Iran somehow closes the Strait of Hormuz and (the
conflict) spills out of Iran and energy production in Iraq is
shifted."
The strategist also noted that the S&P 500
pullback on Friday, followed a strong rally from April lows.
U.S. President Donald Trump said there was still time for
Iran to halt the Israeli attacks by reaching a deal to curb its
nuclear programme.
The attacks came at a time when investors were wondering how
central banks would handle interest rates if U.S. consumer
prices rise due to Trump's tariffs.
Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis Investment
Managers in Boston, said the potential for higher inflation from
rising oil prices looked "less supportive" for U.S. government
bond prices. But he noted that investors typically take
geopolitical crises in their stride.
"Historically speaking with these kind of geopolitical
events, you get the knee-jerk reaction from the market but the
longer-term ramifications tend to fade. History tells us to kind
of look past a lot of this stuff," said Janasiewicz.
OIL PRICE RALLY
Janasiewicz said the ultimate gains in oil prices will
depend on how long the war lasts and whether U.S. supply could
be ramped up to cap prices if there is a supply disruption.
"From a U.S. perspective it's at least a little bit more
insulated because domestic producers could certainly ramp up"
production, Janasiewicz said.
The dollar index, which has recently borne the brunt
of investor risk aversion, again took up the mantle of safe
haven on Friday and was last up about 0.5%.
"The dollar is reverting to that traditional role of safe
haven, which we haven't seen for months," City Index strategist
Fiona Cincotta said.
Despite Wall Street's sell-off, stock prices were still not
far off record highs, and some investors had warned that market
participants may not be cautious enough.
Marlborough fixed income fund manager James Athey said
there was a risk investors dive back into riskier assets too
quickly if tensions do not ratchet up quickly from here.
"In general, markets tend to look through these sorts of
events quite quickly but of course therein lies the risk of
complacency," he said.
"The situation is genuinely tense and fraught and risk
assets are still priced for perfection," he said.