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Japan TOPIX firms see 6% net profit rise as AI, rates boost earnings, SMBC Nikko data shows
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Japan TOPIX firms see 6% net profit rise as AI, rates boost earnings, SMBC Nikko data shows
May 13, 2026 1:48 AM

TOKYO, May 13 (Reuters) - Companies on Japan's TOPIX

index with March year-ends are set to post nearly 6% net

profit growth this business year, driven by electronics and

banking firms benefiting from AI-linked demand and rising

interest rates, an SMBC Nikko Securities tally showed on

Wednesday.

* The findings point to continued resilience in Japanese

equities, underpinned by artificial intelligence-driven

investment and a corporate governance push. The Nikkei share

average hit a string of record highs, closing above

63,000 for the first time on Wednesday despite the Middle East

conflict.

* The tally estimates combined net profit for TOPIX

companies for the year ending March 2027 at 60.092 trillion

yen ($381.03 billion), up 5.9% from the previous year. The

Japanese securities firm said profits could even rise by double

digits.

* The estimate is based on earnings announced through

Tuesday by 536 firms, representing a 48% disclosure rate.

* Hikaru Yasuda, chief equity strategist at SMBC Nikko

Securities, said corporate margins continue to improve.

* "As inflation becomes more entrenched, companies have been

implementing price increases, and I believe the underlying

driver is that their earnings power has been strengthening."

* Just under 10% of non-financial companies with March

fiscal year-ends have refrained from issuing earnings guidance

due to the Middle East war, compared with an average of about 7%

that withheld forecasts after COVID.

* Although the U.S.-Iran conflict forced many companies to

adopt conservative estimates, their forecasts could be revised

upward if the situation improves, Yasuda said.

* "I don't think there is necessarily a need to be overly

pessimistic or assume that earnings forecasts for fiscal 2026

will continue to be revised downward on a sustained basis," he

added.

* Corporate earnings are among the factors the Bank of Japan

will scrutinise as it decides whether to raise interest rates in

June or hold off until later.

($1 = 157.7100 yen)

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