*
April core CPI rises 3.5% yr/yr vs f'cast +3.4%
*
Index excluding fresh food, fuel up 3.0% yr/yr in April
*
Data underscores sticky food inflation
(Adds analyst quote in paragraphs 5-6, Reuters poll in
paragraph 7, detail in paragraphs 9-10)
By Leika Kihara
TOKYO, May 23 (Reuters) - Japan's core inflation
accelerated at its fastest annual pace in more than two years in
April, data showed on Friday, raising the odds of another
interest rate hike by year-end.
The data underscores the Bank of Japan's predicament of
balancing price pressures from persistent food inflation against
growth headwinds from U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh
food but includes oil prices, rose 3.5% in April from a year
earlier, exceeding market forecasts for a 3.4% gain and
accelerating from a 3.2% increase in March.
It was also the fastest annual pace of growth for the index
since the 4.2% rise in January 2023, holding above the central
bank's 2% target for more than three years.
"Underlying inflation remained strong in April despite the
slashing of public high school fees," said Marcel Thieliant,
head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.
"Our own view is that the persistent strength in inflation
will convince the (BOJ) to hike interest rates yet again in
October," contrary to the dominant market view that U.S. trade
tensions will force it to hold fire this year, Thieliant said.
A
Reuters poll
of economists showed that the BOJ will hold rates steady
through September, with a small majority forecasting a 25-basis
point rate hike by year-end.
Another index stripping away both fuel and fresh food, which
is scrutinised by the BOJ as a better gauge of demand-driven
price pressure, rose 3.0% in April from a year earlier, the data
showed. It accelerated from a 2.9% gain in March.
Food inflation accelerated to 7.0% in April from 6.2% in
March in a sign many companies hiked prices at the April start
of Japan's new fiscal year. The price of rice spiked 98.6% last
month from a year earlier, while that of chocolate jumped 31%.
Service-sector inflation was more moderate at 1.3% in April,
compared with 1.4% in March, suggesting companies were slow in
passing on rising labour costs, the data showed.
The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus programme last
year and in January raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% on
the view Japan was on the cusp of durably meeting its 2%
inflation target.
While the central bank has signalled readiness to raise
rates further, the economic repercussions from Trump's tariffs
have complicated decisions around the timing of the next rate
increase.