* June producer price index rises 7.1% yr/yr vs forecast
+6.8%
* Yen-based import price index rises at fastest pace since
2022
* Data back up BOJ report warning of faster pass-through of
costs
(Adds milestone, background in paragraphs 8, 11, 13)
By Leika Kihara
TOKYO, July 10 (Reuters) - Japan's wholesale inflation
accelerated in June at the fastest pace in more than three years
as firms aggressively passed on rising costs from the Middle
East conflict, data showed on Friday, bolstering the case for
further interest rate hikes.
The data came in the wake of a Bank of Japan report on
Thursday warning that the pass-through of input costs was
proceeding at a faster pace than in the past, and could lead to
higher consumer inflation later this year.
The producer price index surged 7.1% in June from a year
earlier, BOJ data showed, exceeding the median market forecast
for a 6.8% increase and marking the fastest year-on-year rise
since March 2023. It accelerated from a revised 6.6% gain in
May.
"Wholesale inflation will remain elevated with negotiations
between the U.S. and Iran hitting a roadblock. The impact of
supply constraints and past rises in energy costs will also
spread to prices for various goods," said Masato Koike, senior
economist at Sompo Institute Plus.
"If prices rise sharply for various goods, the BOJ may be
forced to raise rates early including in October," he said.
The spike in producer prices was driven by a 22.8% rise in
fuel prices and a 39.2% jump in non-ferrous metals prices, the
data showed, highlighting the impact of the war-induced energy
shock and robust demand for AI-related raw materials.
A stubbornly weak yen also continued to push up the cost of
raw material imports.
The yen-based import price index in June rose 29.7% from a
year earlier, accelerating from a revised 26.1% gain in May and
rising at the fastest pace since October 2022.
The data will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinise at
this month's policy meeting, when the board is set to keep rates
steady but release fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts
that could offer clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
The Middle East conflict has complicated the BOJ's policy
path, stoking inflation through higher oil prices while
squeezing an economy dependent on imported fuel.
Recent data showed the economy weathering the hit from the
Iran war. The BOJ's "tankan" survey showed business mood hit an
eight-year high and corporate inflation expectations rose to
record levels, helping to make the case for more rate hikes.
In raising its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1% last
month, the BOJ warned of mounting inflationary pressure from the
Iran war by pointing to steady rises in wholesale inflation.
Most analysts polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise
rates again to 1.25% by year-end.
The BOJ's communication, however, may be complicated by the
more modest increase in consumer prices. Core consumer inflation
stayed below the BOJ's 2% target for a fourth straight month in
May, partly because government subsidies designed to shield
households from rising fuel costs continued to dampen price
pressures.
"While past oil price rises are pushing up wholesale prices,
consumer prices are rising only moderately due to government
steps," Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi, seen as an advocate of
loose monetary policy, told a news briefing on Friday.
He also said the boost to inflation from a weak yen comes
with a lag and was "not necessarily that large."