TOKYO, April 21 (Reuters) - Japanese government bonds
rose on Tuesday on growing bets that the Bank of Japan will not
increase interest rates at its policy meeting next week to spend
more time gauging the fallout from the Middle East conflict.
The 10-year JGB yield fell 2 basis points
(bps) to 2.375%. The two-year yield declined 1 bp
to 1.345% and the five-year yield fell 1.5 bps to
1.8%. Yields move inversely to bond prices.
The BOJ is likely to hold off raising rates next Tuesday, as
fading prospects of a near-term end to the Middle East war keep
the country's economic and price outlook highly uncertain,
Reuters reported, citing sources.
"In my view, the BOJ is already behind the curve in dealing
with rising prices. And it will maintain its fighting pose to
raise rates by July," said Shuichi Ohsaki, a senior portfolio
manager at Meiji Yasuda Asset Management.
Swap rates indicate only a 7.78% chance of the BOJ raising
rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% next week and around a 90%
probability of rates rising by 50 bps from now to 1.25% by the
end of this year.
The one-year swap rate two-year forward hovered around 1.93%
on Tuesday, indicating that the BOJ's terminal rate will be
around that level.
The central bank is seen raising rates a few more times next
year, but that will be more challenging, given that hawkish
board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata will end their
terms next year, said Miki Den, a senior Japan rate strategist
at SMBC Nikko Securities.
Japan's parliament in March approved Prime Minister Sanae
Takaichi's choice of two like-minded monetary doves to join the
central bank board this year.
Yields on super-long ends also fell, with the 20-year JGB
yield slipping 1.5 bps to 3.215%.
The 30-year yield fell 1.5 bps to 3.545%. The
yield on the 40-year JGB fell 1.5 bps to 3.77%.
(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)