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JGBs rise on bets BOJ will keep rates steady next week
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JGBs rise on bets BOJ will keep rates steady next week
Apr 20, 2026 11:04 PM

TOKYO, April 21 (Reuters) - Japanese government bonds

rose on Tuesday on growing bets that the Bank of Japan will not

increase interest rates at its policy meeting next week to spend

more time gauging the fallout from the Middle East conflict.

The 10-year JGB yield fell 2 basis points

(bps) to 2.375%. The two-year yield declined 1 bp

to 1.345% and the five-year yield fell 1.5 bps to

1.8%. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

The BOJ is likely to hold off raising rates next Tuesday, as

fading prospects of a near-term end to the Middle East war keep

the country's economic and price outlook highly uncertain,

Reuters reported, citing sources.

"In my view, the BOJ is already behind the curve in dealing

with rising prices. And it will maintain its fighting pose to

raise rates by July," said Shuichi Ohsaki, a senior portfolio

manager at Meiji Yasuda Asset Management.

Swap rates indicate only a 7.78% chance of the BOJ raising

rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% next week and around a 90%

probability of rates rising by 50 bps from now to 1.25% by the

end of this year.

The one-year swap rate two-year forward hovered around 1.93%

on Tuesday, indicating that the BOJ's terminal rate will be

around that level.

The central bank is seen raising rates a few more times next

year, but that will be more challenging, given that hawkish

board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata will end their

terms next year, said Miki Den, a senior Japan rate strategist

at SMBC Nikko Securities.

Japan's parliament in March approved Prime Minister Sanae

Takaichi's choice of two like-minded monetary doves to join the

central bank board this year.

Yields on super-long ends also fell, with the 20-year JGB

yield slipping 1.5 bps to 3.215%.

The 30-year yield fell 1.5 bps to 3.545%. The

yield on the 40-year JGB fell 1.5 bps to 3.77%.

(Reporting by Junko Fujita; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

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