11:25 AM EDT, 06/15/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC on Monday said its base case is for the Bank of Canada to be on hold this year with a greater chance of hikes than cuts.

However, lower oil prices reduce the chance of hikes and increase the chance of cuts, noted the bank.

RBC argues that oil is singularly keeping yields more elevated than otherwise. The fundamental data, growth, labor, inflation, and two-way risk factors would be more consistent with the CORRA strip pricing the BoC on hold.

If oil returns to pre-Iran war prices and data continues to disappoint, markets could conceivably price in cuts, stated the bank.

In 2027, RBC's forecast assumes modest adjustment-style hikes if growth moves into an above-trend phase. But that will be a slow burn if oil stays "subdued."