(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
LONDON, July 22 - What matters in U.S. and global markets
today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
Oil prices, bond yields and chip stocks were rising in sync
again overnight, as this renewed round of fighting between the
U.S. and Iran entered its eleventh day with no end in sight. But
the chip rally stalled in Asia during a volatile session, and
Wall Street futures are down as investors await results from
Alphabet and Tesla later today.
I'll get into all that and more below.
But first, check out my midweek column on a few important market
stories that aren't in the headlines. This week I zero in on a
jobs market puzzle, shifting monetary goal posts and
single-stock volatility.
And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily
podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the
biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
ALPHABETTING
Amid the fog of war and market volatility, Japan's yen is also
back on the slide, hitting its weakest level in 40 years above
163 per dollar. The latest yen slip may reflect two things: the
fresh surge in crude prices, a major inflationary risk for a big
oil importer like Japan, and the resumption of U.S. tariff
threats. On the latter, Reuters reported on Tuesday that Japan
is seeking to raise dollar financing to increase its investments
in America as part of February's trade truce with Washington. Of
the $550 billion promised at the time, only about $2 billion has
been earmarked so far.
Needless to say, Tokyo traders are back on edge over the risk of
official intervention to support the yen as Finance Minister
Katayama warned of it again on Wednesday.
Otherwise, chip stocks were the big movers again overnight. The
U.S. SOX chip index jumped back 5% on Tuesday and South Korea's
KOSPI was up by a similar amount earlier following the release
of bumper early July trade numbers, but it then gave back most
of these gains.
This comes as Alphabet gets set to report its second-quarter
earnings, the first of the U.S. Big Tech giants to do so, and
the bar to impress will be very high. Reuters analysis shows the
four AI hyperscalers will see their capex exceed their operating
cash flow by next year, a remarkable shift given that these
companies have long been known for printing cash. Tesla is also
expected to show that it's back in cash burn mode when it
reports today.
The tech stock bounce-back - brief though it was - remains
notable, given the tightening of bond markets around the world
this week in response to crude oil's return to a six-week high
near $95 per barrel.
There is little sign that we will soon see a resolution in the
Iran war, a conflict that has cost the U.S. government more than
$37.5 billion already, according to the Pentagon. Now that the
high point of summer is in the rearview mirror, fuel storage for
the winter is now coming back onto the radar. Goldman Sachs this
week said that if there is no resolution to the Gulf conflict
soon, crude could hit $120/bbl in the fourth quarter.
Elsewhere, UK markets held steady as new Prime Minister Andy
Burnham indicated that he would not tinker with income tax
thresholds - which could have cost the government billions - and
UK inflation eased back to 2.6% in June.
CHART OF THE DAY
Brent crude oil prices climbed toward $95 per barrel, near a
six-week high, as fears of further supply disruptions
intensified after U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets
for the 11th straight night.
Three oil tankers loaded with Saudi crude for China and India
made U-turns in the Red Sea on Tuesday, heading towards the Suez
Canal rather than braving the Yemeni coast following a warning
from the Iran-aligned Houthi militia. Another front appears to
be opening in a re-escalating war, creating concerns about the
build-up of winter fuel storage.
TODAY'S EVENTS TO WATCH
* Earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments,
AT&T, Moody's, CME, ServiceNow, CSX, Philip Morris, Northern
Trust
* U.S. Treasury sells 20-year bonds
* Chicago Fed June business survey, Kansas City Fed July
manufacturing survey
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is
committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Writing by Mike Dolan)