(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

April 13 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

Oil prices zoomed back above $100 a barrel and global stocks

were shaky on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump sought to

blockade traffic to and from Iranian ports in the critical

Strait of Hormuz after peace talks in Islamabad failed over the

weekend.

It's not clear whether the failure of the talks jeopardises the

two-week ceasefire announced last week, but Trump's attempt to

up the ante by sending the U.S. Navy into the Gulf is already

starting to unwind some of last week's relief rally.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast, where I break down the latest twist in the U.S.-Iran

war - and why markets should care about Viktor Orban's election

defeat in Hungary.

And finally, don't forget to mark April 23 in your calendar,

when I'll be joining my ROI colleague Jamie McGeever for a

timely webinar discussion on rethinking safe-haven assets in

uncertain times. Sign up here.

BLOCKADE TAKES ITS TOLL

Both Brent and WTI crude leapt back above $100 a barrel on

Monday as the U.S. Navy prepared its Hormuz blockade, set to

come into effect at 10 a.m. EDT, though the benchmarks remain

below last week's highs before the ceasefire announcement.

Wall Street futures were down almost 1% before the bell and

European shares slipped, while major Asian indexes closed lower.

The dollar advanced against major currencies in early trading

but later pared some of those gains.

Brent crude is up some 40% since the conflict started. Perhaps

just as worrying for American consumers was President Trump's

admission on Sunday that gas prices may stay elevated through

the midterm elections in November - or rise even more. That

acknowledgement suggests the pressure of domestic politics alone

is unlikely to secure an early end to the Middle East conflict.

The war's inflation implications became clear last Friday as

U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years

in March, leaving annual inflation at 3.3%, with gasoline prices

accounting for most of the monthly rise.

Elsewhere, Hungary's nationalist leader Viktor Orban was voted

out of office after 16 years in power in a landslide weekend

election that's set to give winner Peter Magyar's party a

two-thirds majority in parliament. That will allow Magyar to

seek warmer ties with the EU and enact constitutional reforms.

The Hungarian forint surged, as did the country's bonds, with

some 18 billion euros of frozen EU funds now potentially back on

tap.

Finally, the first-quarter U.S. earnings season will kick

off in earnest today with Goldman Sachs' update, while the IMF

and World Bank's Spring Meetings are set to begin in Washington.

Chart of the day

An estimated 10% of the S&P 500 will have reported first-quarter

results by this Friday, with a flood of earnings due in the

following weeks. Aside from banks, major company results this

week include Netflix, Johnson & Johnson and PepsiCo.

Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to rise by

about 14% compared to the year-ago period, according to analyst

estimates compiled by LSEG IBES as of Friday. Instead of

cowering at the prospect of a year-long oil shock, analysts have

actually marked up estimates for full-year S&P 500 earnings

growth. Whether that gets sideswiped by companies' own guidance

now remains to be seen.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. March existing home sales (10 a.m. EDT)

* Fed's Stephen Miran speaks

* World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings begin in Washington

* OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

* U.S. corporate earnings: Goldman Sachs

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.