(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

Aug 13 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

There were no fireworks in the July consumer inflation

report, offering marginal relief to markets wary of an upside

surprise.

Annual headline and core rates ticked down as expected, although

the monthly core price gain was a touch hotter than forecast.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column, probing AI's impacts on

inflation and jobs so far.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the

biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

BRIEF RELIEF

Interest rate markets exhaled a bit after the CPI print,

knocking the chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month

just below 50%.

Short-term Treasuries took some solace too, although that

didn't prevent the government having to sell 10-year debt at the

highest yield in almost 20 years in yesterday's auction. The

yield curve from two to 30 years steepened slightly.

A game changer? Hardly. That's partly because the next

instalment of the overall inflation picture is due today, with

the producer price report containing important components of the

Fed's favored PCE gauge, such as airfares.

And both core and headline PCE inflation are expected to have

remained above 3% in July. What's more, the rebound in oil

prices since July could aggravate August inflation readings, and

the Fed will have that month's CPI report in hand before it

meets in September.

On the energy front, Brent crude was still hovering under $90

per barrel on Thursday amid the ongoing impasse in the Gulf,

albeit a tad down from the week's peaks.

Elsewhere, Japan's wholesale inflation picture looked angry too,

with annual rates still running above 7% in July amid big energy

price gains. Monthly rates were softer than expected, though,

and the jury is out on how the data could impact the Bank of

Japan's decision making.

Otherwise, world markets have slipped into the August doldrums,

with major stock indexes little changed and Wall Street still

near records after Wednesday's earnings-day surges in AI-related

firms CoreWeave and Super Micro.

Chart of the day

Helped by a surprising jump in June GDP as the World Cup lifted

spending, Britain's economy expanded at a brisk 0.4% in the

second quarter of 2026.

That was a touch cooler than the first quarter, but the

economy is clocking an annualized growth rate of 2.0% for the

first half of the year, and it was the second quarter in a row

that the UK was the fastest-growing G7 economy.

While the second half of the year tends to be slower, the

first half challenges the narrative of a struggling UK economy,

and will act as a tailwind for new Prime Minister Andy Burnham

in his first government budget plan in October.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. July PPI (8:30 a.m. EDT), weekly jobless claims (8:30

a.m. EDT)

* U.S. 30-year bond auction (1 p.m. EDT)

* Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed's Thomas

Barkin speak

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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