(The opinions expressed here are those of the authors, columnist

for Reuters.)

By Anna Szymanski

14 Nov -

Hello Morning Bid readers!

The end of the U.S. government shutdown may be an example of

"buying the rumor and selling the news", as Wall Street tumbled

on Thursday after rallying earlier in the week. Though with

Nvidia and other AI leaders recording meaningful losses

yesterday, and bets on Federal Reserve cuts getting pared back,

the major market-moving issues clearly remain "AI bubble" fears

and the trajectory for policy easing.

One reason the end of the longest-ever government shutdown - 43

days, if you were counting - had only a modest impact on markets

is that economic clarity - one of investors' biggest concerns

related to the closure - is unlikely to clear up, even with

Washington DC open, as ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever and

ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan both explained this week.

That lack of clarity is bad news for Fed Chair Jay Powell, and

can help explain why the U.S. central bank may pause next month,

as Mike Dolan argues.

Over in Asia, the yen fell to its weakest level in nine months

on Wednesday, brushing up against the crucial 155 level. Jamie

McGeever argues that government intervention to prop up the yen

may not yet be a given, but investors should still remain on

high alert.

Staying in Japan, a peculiar similarity is emerging between new

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump.

They both appear set on using fiscal stimulus to combat

cost-of-living concerns - which, as Jamie McGeever argues, is a

bit like trying to bring a fire under control by dousing it with

gasoline.

Meanwhile, in energy markets, the International Energy Agency on

Wednesday published its World Energy Outlook, which introduced a

new scenario showing that, given current government policies,

oil demand will not plateau in 2030 as previously expected, but

will instead keep rising through mid-century. It's sobering

reading for world leaders meeting in Brazil for COP30, explains

ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso examines.

Speaking of the climate summit, ROI energy transition

columnist Gavin Maguire looks at what has - and what hasn't -

changed since the landmark COP21 Paris agreement ten years ago.

The growing bullishness about the outlook for oil and gas demand

was certainty apparent in energy giant Chevron's latest strategy

update, also released on Wednesday. Ron Bousso argues that it

shrugs off long-term anxieties about the transition toward

low-carbon energy as well as near-term concerns about a

potential looming oversupply.

On the topic of oversupply, ROI Asia commodities columnist Clyde

Russell wrote this week that the LNG market is bracing for a

surge in supply next year, with significant uncertainty about

how low spot prices will have to drop to clear the additional

volumes.

Finally, over in the metals markets, ROI metals columnist Andy

Home notes that copper has been added to the U.S. government's

list of critical minerals, even though the U.S. has the world's

second largest copper stockpile.

As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team's

recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch

to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at

This weekend, we're reading...

This in-depth new report from the looks at the expanding

trade between the Middle East Gulf and Asia, noting that - for

the first time ever - trade between the Gulf and China is now

bigger than the region's trade with the West. While energy

remains the foundation of the trade relationship, it also is

expanding into other sectors such as construction and

electronics.

This piece by economic historian magazine is a nice sweep

of economic history that compares the current attempt to roll

back globalization with the prior free trade waves going back

into the 18th and 19th centuries - and the periodic, sometimes,

disastrous retreats to economic nationalism. The piece asks

whether we're at a unique juncture now or just experiencing

another cyclical wave.

"Bubble or Nothing" is deep-dive by the Center for Public

Enterprise into the AI boom - its funding and energy needs, its

'circular' financing, the revenues it may or may not generate,

and the potential economic risks if the bubble pops. It has some

excellent - and simple - graphics too.

While the IEA's latest report may have grabbed attention

for saying that fossil fuels will linger in the global energy

mix for longer that previously forecast, this outlook from Ember

expects that clean energy sources will continue to squeeze out

coal and gas in world electricity generation.

We're listening to...

How effective are U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil and gas

industry? The answer is a mixed picture. This with Edward

Fishman offers some great insights.

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Opinions expressed are those of the authors. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Anna Szymanski.)