A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets by Alun

John, EMEA breaking news correspondent, finance and markets

Things are feeling calmer on Monday morning, though we will see

how long that lasts as it's going to be an action-packed week.

Shares in Europe and Asia are trading higher and Nasdaq

futures were up 0.3% at the time of writing (0900 GMT, 0500 ET)-

a change of tone after a stumble by megacap tech stocks saw the

tech-heavy benchmark shed 5.6% in the past two weeks.

This week will go a long way towards deciding whether that's

it for the sell-off, and the rotation into small cap stocks, or

whether it is the start of something big.

Geopolitics aren't having much of an effect on markets, at

least so far, and concerns that Israel and the Iran-backed

Lebanese group Hezbollah could be sucked into a full-scale war

have done little to move oil prices, let alone broader markets.

Monday's main potentially market-moving event is the U.S.

Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement.

It's one of those that can sometimes pass without notice.

But investors were surprised by the larger auction sizes in the

equivalent announcement a year ago, which sent long-dated

Treasury yields higher due to fears about how the additional

supply would be absorbed.

We might get through this one unscathed, as the Treasury

indicated in May it will keep most auction sizes steady. But it

does mean a surprise could generate a larger reaction, and

certainly investors remain worried about the U.S. fiscal

trajectory.

We'll rattle through the rest of the week's big events

quickly so we aren't here all day, as there are a lot of them.

Earnings are due from Microsoft on Tuesday, Meta on

Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday, which will be

interesting after Tesla, and to a lesser extent Alphabet, which

disappointed last week.

In central banks, the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday -

no change is expected, but it'll be interesting to see whether

they do anything to disrupt market bets on a September rate cut

- as well as the Bank of Japan, while the Bank of England will

convene on Thursday.

Market pricing sees a first BoE cut of the cycle as a coin

toss, and a second small rate hike as more likely than not from

outlier Bank of Japan.

On top of that, there are all the back-and-forths in opinion

polls ahead of November's U.S. presidential election to follow.

As if that's not enough, we've got jobs data scattered through

the week, building up to Friday's non-farm payrolls data.

Traders always say this is important, but this one really is.

Signs, though not definitive ones, that the labour market is

slowing mean that Friday's data could even tell us more about

the likely rate trajectory for the Fed than the central bank's

Wednesday meeting.

Markets are currently pricing around 70 basis points of Fed

cuts this year. It would be at least a bit satisfying for some

of the Fed's policymakers if the three 25 bp moves this implies

come to pass, as that's what Fed rate setters said they expected

to do back in December 2023.

Since then, of course, there have been moments when markets

have swung between pricing nearly seven rate cuts this year to

pricing almost zero.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S.

markets later on Monday:

* Earnings: McDonalds, Chesapeake Energy

* U.S. Treasury announces quarterly borrowing estimates

* Dallas Fed manufacturing activity