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MORNING BID AMERICAS-China trade heats up, UK rates in view
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-China trade heats up, UK rates in view
May 9, 2024 3:50 AM

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike

Dolan

As Wall Street stalls its recent rally, world markets switched

attention to China's on-off recovery and whether the Bank of

England's latest policy decision on Thursday may signal that it

is ready to ease credit as early as next month.

U.S. stock futures as well as Asian and European equities

have turned more subdued generally. But Chinese stocks

clearly outperformed overnight after news the country's exports

and imports returned to growth in April - stirring hopes that

government stimulus measures there may be starting to kick in.

Shipments from China grew 1.5% in the year through last

month, while imports for April increased by 8.4%, beating an

expected 4.8% rise. Both imports and exports reversed March

declines.

The trade numbers add a spur to the global demand outlook at

the margin at a tricky time for central banks - nudging oil

prices higher again on Thursday alongside data showing a

surprise draw on U.S. stockpiles.

But they also likely mask significant upheaval in bilateral

trade flows. Reuters' calculations based on official data from

the German statistics office, for example, showed the United

States overtook China as Germany's most important trading

partner in the first quarter of this year.

Adding to the Chinese market cheer on Thursday, however, was

some loosening of property market curbs. China's eastern

metropolis of Hangzhou said it would lift all home purchase

restrictions to shore up its real estate market, raising the

prospect of other cities following suit.

The latest development also comes against an intensified

tech sector standoff between Washington and Beijing.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on Wednesday a

Chinese invasion of Taiwan and seizure of chips producer TSMC

would be "absolutely devastating" to the American

economy. Declining to comment on how or whether it would happen,

she told a U.S. House hearing that the United States buys 92% of

its leading edge chips from TSMC.

Intel ( INTC ), meanwhile, fell more than 2% on Wednesday

after warning of a sales hit from the U.S. revoking some of the

chipmaker's export licences for China.

It has been a bumpy week within the tech sector more

generally. Arm Holdings dropped 10% in out-of-hours

trade overnight after a full-year revenue forecast missed

expectations.

Wall St stock futures were off slightly ahead of Thursday's

open, Treasury yields were a touch higher and the dollar

was firmer too.

Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction was a little tepid and

bond investors now await $25 billion of new 30-year bonds later

on Thursday.

Fed officials continue to sound cautious - though

downplaying any need to raise interest rates again. Boston Fed

President Susan Collins said the current setting of monetary

policy would slow the economy in the way she said was necessary

to get inflation back to the Fed's 2% target.

Back in Europe, the Bank of England decision is in focus and

sterling is on the backfoot amid speculation that steady

rates today may be accompanied by signals that the Bank is

prepared to ease alongside the European Central Bank as soon as

next month.

And in deals, Spanish bank Sabadell jumped 6%

after rival BBVA presented a 12.23 billion euro

takeover bid directly to shareholders, even though the former's

board already rejected the proposal. BBVA shares were down 5.4%.

Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later

on Thursday:

* Bank of England policy decision, meeting minutes, monetary

policy report and press briefing; Central Bank of Mexico

releases Monetary policy statement

* US weekly jobless claims, Mexico April inflation

* San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks;

European Central Bank board member Luis de Guindos speaks

* US corporate earnings: Warner Bros Discovery, Tapestry,

Constellation Energy, Evergy ( EVRG ), Viatris ( VTRS ), Gen Digital, Insulet ( PODD ),

Epam Systems ( EPAM ), Akamai Technologies ( AKAM ), Mettler-Toledo ( MTD ), Charles River

Laboratories ( CRL )

* Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan visits the United States

* US Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Gareth Jones

mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)

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