A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike
Dolan
As Wall Street stalls its recent rally, world markets switched
attention to China's on-off recovery and whether the Bank of
England's latest policy decision on Thursday may signal that it
is ready to ease credit as early as next month.
U.S. stock futures as well as Asian and European equities
have turned more subdued generally. But Chinese stocks
clearly outperformed overnight after news the country's exports
and imports returned to growth in April - stirring hopes that
government stimulus measures there may be starting to kick in.
Shipments from China grew 1.5% in the year through last
month, while imports for April increased by 8.4%, beating an
expected 4.8% rise. Both imports and exports reversed March
declines.
The trade numbers add a spur to the global demand outlook at
the margin at a tricky time for central banks - nudging oil
prices higher again on Thursday alongside data showing a
surprise draw on U.S. stockpiles.
But they also likely mask significant upheaval in bilateral
trade flows. Reuters' calculations based on official data from
the German statistics office, for example, showed the United
States overtook China as Germany's most important trading
partner in the first quarter of this year.
Adding to the Chinese market cheer on Thursday, however, was
some loosening of property market curbs. China's eastern
metropolis of Hangzhou said it would lift all home purchase
restrictions to shore up its real estate market, raising the
prospect of other cities following suit.
The latest development also comes against an intensified
tech sector standoff between Washington and Beijing.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on Wednesday a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan and seizure of chips producer TSMC
would be "absolutely devastating" to the American
economy. Declining to comment on how or whether it would happen,
she told a U.S. House hearing that the United States buys 92% of
its leading edge chips from TSMC.
Intel ( INTC ), meanwhile, fell more than 2% on Wednesday
after warning of a sales hit from the U.S. revoking some of the
chipmaker's export licences for China.
It has been a bumpy week within the tech sector more
generally. Arm Holdings dropped 10% in out-of-hours
trade overnight after a full-year revenue forecast missed
expectations.
Wall St stock futures were off slightly ahead of Thursday's
open, Treasury yields were a touch higher and the dollar
was firmer too.
Wednesday's 10-year Treasury auction was a little tepid and
bond investors now await $25 billion of new 30-year bonds later
on Thursday.
Fed officials continue to sound cautious - though
downplaying any need to raise interest rates again. Boston Fed
President Susan Collins said the current setting of monetary
policy would slow the economy in the way she said was necessary
to get inflation back to the Fed's 2% target.
Back in Europe, the Bank of England decision is in focus and
sterling is on the backfoot amid speculation that steady
rates today may be accompanied by signals that the Bank is
prepared to ease alongside the European Central Bank as soon as
next month.
And in deals, Spanish bank Sabadell jumped 6%
after rival BBVA presented a 12.23 billion euro
takeover bid directly to shareholders, even though the former's
board already rejected the proposal. BBVA shares were down 5.4%.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later
on Thursday:
* Bank of England policy decision, meeting minutes, monetary
policy report and press briefing; Central Bank of Mexico
releases Monetary policy statement
* US weekly jobless claims, Mexico April inflation
* San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks;
European Central Bank board member Luis de Guindos speaks
* US corporate earnings: Warner Bros Discovery, Tapestry,
Constellation Energy, Evergy ( EVRG ), Viatris ( VTRS ), Gen Digital, Insulet ( PODD ),
Epam Systems ( EPAM ), Akamai Technologies ( AKAM ), Mettler-Toledo ( MTD ), Charles River
Laboratories ( CRL )
* Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan visits the United States
* US Treasury auctions $25 billion of 30-year bonds
(By Mike Dolan, editing by Gareth Jones
mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)