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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Consumer check, but don't forget France and Japan
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Consumer check, but don't forget France and Japan
Jun 14, 2024 3:29 AM

June 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and

global markets by Alun John.

How U.S. consumers are feeling is the question for today,

though it could be one of those relatively rare occasions when

it's developments in Europe and Asia that are driving the macro

picture.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey is

due and last month's reading was at a six-month low.

It will be interesting to see whether last month's cooler

inflation has had much of an effect, though it is likely to be

too soon for people to have noticed, and the data is quite

choppy anyway.

Still, it'll be a helpful read on the state of the U.S.

consumer - which has provided the non-AI leg of equities' recent

strong performance - and could also come with a second-order

effect for markets as people speculate about what it can tell us

about the mood ahead of November's presidential election.

The election that has got markets talking this week,

however, is the one for the French legislature called by

President Emmanuel Macron after a bruising loss in the weekend's

European Parliament vote to Marine Le Pen's far-right National

Rally.

The RN is leading the polls for the first round of

parliamentary voting on June 30, and, further complicating the

picture, political parties representing the French left-wing

said Thursday they had reached an agreement to form a 'Popular

Front'.

This has left Macron's camp struggling to make headway, and

is spooking markets.

French stocks are down 4.5% for the week, at the time of

writing, on track for their biggest weekly drop since September

2022, with banks particularly hard hit.

The spread between French and German bond yields - the extra

yield investors want in exchange for taking on more risk - has

widened by 27 basis points this week, and is at its widest since

2017.

Not adding reassurance, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire when

asked on franceinfo radio on Friday whether the current

political situation in the country could lead to a financial

crisis, said 'yes'.

Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan said it would start

trimming its huge bond purchases, and announce a detailed plan

next month on reducing its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet.

While this is another step toward unwinding its massive

monetary stimulus, markets had expected the central bank to move

this month, and this surprise sent the yen weaker.

The dollar reached as high as 158.25 yen, its highest since

late April when Japanese authorities stepped into markets to

prop up their currency.

Also in Asia, investors are watching China's central bank,

which faces a looming test of its resolve to curb the financial

stability risks it sees in a rallying bond market.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S.

markets later on Friday:

* Fed Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee

speaks

* Uni of Michigan June survey

* US import/export prices

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