June 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and
global markets by Alun John.
How U.S. consumers are feeling is the question for today,
though it could be one of those relatively rare occasions when
it's developments in Europe and Asia that are driving the macro
picture.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey is
due and last month's reading was at a six-month low.
It will be interesting to see whether last month's cooler
inflation has had much of an effect, though it is likely to be
too soon for people to have noticed, and the data is quite
choppy anyway.
Still, it'll be a helpful read on the state of the U.S.
consumer - which has provided the non-AI leg of equities' recent
strong performance - and could also come with a second-order
effect for markets as people speculate about what it can tell us
about the mood ahead of November's presidential election.
The election that has got markets talking this week,
however, is the one for the French legislature called by
President Emmanuel Macron after a bruising loss in the weekend's
European Parliament vote to Marine Le Pen's far-right National
Rally.
The RN is leading the polls for the first round of
parliamentary voting on June 30, and, further complicating the
picture, political parties representing the French left-wing
said Thursday they had reached an agreement to form a 'Popular
Front'.
This has left Macron's camp struggling to make headway, and
is spooking markets.
French stocks are down 4.5% for the week, at the time of
writing, on track for their biggest weekly drop since September
2022, with banks particularly hard hit.
The spread between French and German bond yields - the extra
yield investors want in exchange for taking on more risk - has
widened by 27 basis points this week, and is at its widest since
2017.
Not adding reassurance, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire when
asked on franceinfo radio on Friday whether the current
political situation in the country could lead to a financial
crisis, said 'yes'.
Also on Friday, the Bank of Japan said it would start
trimming its huge bond purchases, and announce a detailed plan
next month on reducing its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet.
While this is another step toward unwinding its massive
monetary stimulus, markets had expected the central bank to move
this month, and this surprise sent the yen weaker.
The dollar reached as high as 158.25 yen, its highest since
late April when Japanese authorities stepped into markets to
prop up their currency.
Also in Asia, investors are watching China's central bank,
which faces a looming test of its resolve to curb the financial
stability risks it sees in a rallying bond market.
Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S.
markets later on Friday:
* Fed Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee
speaks
* Uni of Michigan June survey
* US import/export prices