May 5 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Anna Szymanski, Editor-in-Charge, Reuters Commentary

Trading in global markets was fairly quiet at the start of this

central bank-packed week, with holidays today in Britain, Hong

Kong, China, Japan and South Korea. But the oil market has

garnered headlines, with prices falling more than 2% on Monday

after oil producing group OPEC+ agreed to accelerate oil

production hikes.

Mike is off for the UK bank holiday, but check out his latest

column about the deep gulf in Federal Reserve rate forecasts,

which are clouding an already uncertain U.S. economic outlook.

Today's Market Minute

* Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday as OPEC+ is

set to further speed up oil output hikes, spurring concerns

about more supply coming into a market struggling with an

unclear demand outlook. For more on this story, check out

Reuters' columnist Clyde Russell's piece on why the OPEC+

group's stated reasons for supply increase are likely not the

real reasons.

* Berkshire Hathaway shareholders mourning the departure of

legendary investor Warren Buffett anticipate the conglomerate he

built over 60 years will retain its long-term focus and culture

but worry about the loss of Buffett's vision and star power.

* U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday announced a 100% tariff

on movies produced outside the country, saying the American

movie industry was dying a "very fast death" due to the

incentives that other countries were offering to lure

filmmakers.

* President Trump said he will not remove Jerome Powell as

Federal Reserve Board Chairman before his term ends in May 2026

while describing the central banker as "a total stiff" and

repeating calls for the Fed to lower interest rates.

* Australia's Anthony Albanese claimed a historic second term as

prime minister on Saturday in a dramatic comeback against

once-resurgent conservatives that was powered by voters'

concerns about the influence of U.S. President Donald Trump.

Crude awakening

Brent crude and U.S. West Texas crude futures both fell more

than $1 a barrel after the weekend announcement that OPEC+ would

speed up oil output hikes. The group is adding more supply at a

time when the oil demand outlook is highly uncertain.

This week all eyes will be on the meetings of the U.S.

Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as investors try to

assess how major central banks' outlooks for growth and

inflation have been impacted by the erratic U.S. tariff policy.

Staying on trade, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that the

United States was meeting with many countries, including China,

on trade deals. He noted that his main priority with China was

to secure a fair deal.

Investor optimism about potential de-escalation in trade

tensions between the U.S. and China has boosted markets in

recent days.

Europe's broad STOXX 600 index is up around 15% from lows hit

last month, while the S&P 500 index has rebounded around 17%

from its lows last month following Trump's 'Liberation Day'

tariff announcement.

In currency markets, the Taiwan dollar was poised for its

biggest one-day gain against the U.S. dollar since the 1980s,

rising to as high as 29.59 per U.S. dollar.

Its 3% surge on Monday has increased speculation that some Asian

countries could allow their currencies to strengthen against the

U.S. dollar to win trade concessions from the Trump

administration.

However, Taiwan's office of trade negotiations said on Monday

that tariff talks with the U.S. last week did not discuss the

exchange rate and Taiwan's central bank also did not take part

in the talks.

Chart of the day

Friday's relatively robust April payrolls report surprised

some by showing overall government hiring up by 10,000, with

federal government employment only down 9,000 for the month and

down 26,000 since January amid the Trump administration's

campaign to drastically shrink the government.

Despite headlines of mass firings at government agencies,

the decline in federal payrolls has been relatively modest and

Federal jobs as a percentage of the workforce remained unchanged

at 1.5% last month. That is partly because fired employees who

have been reinstated by court and subsequently put on paid leave

are counted as employed. The same applies to those who have

accepted buyout offers. Economists expect federal payrolls to

drop significantly after September, when severance pay runs out

for many.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. April service sector surveys from S&P Global

(9:45EDT) and ISM (10:00EDT), April employment trends (10:00EDT)

* U.S. corporate earnings: Ford, Loews, Tyson Foods, Clorox,

Palantir, Vertex, Diamondback, Coterra, Williams, ON

Semiconductor, Cummins, Simmer Biomet, Henry Schein

* U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes

(Writing by Anna Szymanski

[email protected])