(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
LONDON, Sept 2 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and
global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
It may just be the 'back to school' trade, but September is
bringing a sudden burst of financial market volatility as
Americans return from Labor Day, with the dollar, long-term
government bond yields and record-high gold all surging on
Tuesday.
Although worries abound about mounting public debt, tariffs and
Federal Reserve independence, it was difficult to identify any
precise trigger for the sequence of overnight market moves - and
hard to connect the dots. Rising long-term government bond
yields in Britain, France and the United States may reflect debt
concerns as we enter the annual budget season and higher oil
prices aren't helping things, but the simultaneous rise of gold
and the dollar made less sense.
The rise in volatility has knocked back stocks worldwide.
* Europe was the epicentre of Tuesday's bond jolt, with France's
30-year government bond yields hitting their highest in over 16
years as Prime Minister François Bayrou began talks with
political parties in a bid to prevent a government collapse over
his budget. Britain's 30-year borrowing costs rose to their
highest levels since 1998 and sterling slid more than 1% on
Tuesday, with this week's reshuffle of PM Keir Starmer's
economic team ahead of the Autumn budget raising questions about
the position of Chancellor Rachel Reeves. With Fed independence
a key focus in a big week for labor data on Wall Street, U.S.
30-year yields stalked 5% yet again and hit their highest in
over a month - sending the 2-to-30-year yield curve to its
highest in almost four years.
* With China's gathering of its Russian, North Korean and Indian
allies this week as a backdrop, gold soared to record highs on a
heady mix of long-term inflation and government debt concerns -
bursting through April's prior peak to top $3,500 per ounce and
clocking year-to-date gains of 33%. However, the dollar -
unusually in times of stress this year - also surged against the
euro, sterling, yen and yuan - with U.S. payrolls eyed,
real-time U.S. GDP estimates running at 3.5% for the third
quarter and August manufacturing surveys due later.
* Elsewhere, global stocks were down generally - with Wall
Street futures down about 0.5% after a rough session last Friday
saw a 1%-plus shakeout in the tech sector. There was also a wave
of uncertainty over fresh legal challenges to President Trump's
'reciprocal' tariffs - a ruling that arrived after Friday's
closing bell. The tech wobble hit Japanese and South Korean
stocks on Monday, but they recovered some of that today. Aside
from the government bond angst in Europe, there was a focus on
Nestle's 1% share slip after the Swiss food giant ousted Chief
Executive Laurent Freixe a year into his tenure.
Today's column explores the implications of the legal challenges
to Trump's 'reciprocal' tariffs and how they complicate an
already messy policy picture.
Today's Market Minute
* China's President Xi Jinping convened his Russian and North
Korean counterparts together for the first time on Tuesday, a
show of solidarity with countries shunned by the West over their
role in Europe's worst war in 80 years.
* Nestle (NESN.S) investors were pitched back into choppy
waters on Tuesday after the Swiss food giant changed its CEO for
the second time in a year, ousting boss Laurent Freixe over an
affair he had with a subordinate.
* U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday the
Federal Reserve is and should be independent but said it had
"made a lot of mistakes" and defended President Donald Trump's
right to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of
mortgage fraud.
* The complex web of Western sanctions targeting Russia's oil
and gas industry has failed to impede Moscow's energy flows or
its war effort, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso,
suggesting that time and overuse are blunting the force of U.S.
and European financial weapons.
* Asia's imports of crude oil rebounded in August as heavyweight
buyers China and India bought more crude from top exporters in
the Middle East. But is this being driven by demand or price?
Read the latest from ROI columnist Clyde Russell.
Chart of the day
As government budget season looms in Europe and anxiety
about U.S. debt loads and central bank independence linger
stateside, long-term public borrowing rates are climbing and the
so-called yield curve gaps between 2-year maturities and 30-year
tenors is widening to reflect much of that long-term
uncertainty. French and British yield curves are now at their
steepest since 2017 and the U.S. curve is at its steepest since
2021.
Today's events to watch
* U.S. August manufacturing surveys from S&P Global (9:45 AM
EDT) and ISM (10:00 AM EDT)
* Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet Russian President
Vladimir Putin in Beijing
* U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits Mexico
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(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters)