(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters)

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, July 29 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and

global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

The dollar is on course for its best week of the

year, as unfolding U.S. trade deals are succeeding in raising

tariffs without attracting much retaliation or causing major

economic damage so far.

A weekend agreement by the European Union to accept a 15% U.S.

tariff hike, with promises of hefty spending on U.S. energy and

arms to boot, saw the dollar notch its best day since May

against the euro. Sustained dollar gains are a mixed blessing

for Wall Street stocks and for President Donald Trump's

administration, as it sees dollar depreciation as an integral

part of tackling trade deficits and boosting competitiveness.

I'll review today's market news and then look at whether the

dollar's considerable tariff risk premium may be dissipating as

trade deals get done.

* The dollar rebound comes as the Federal Reserve starts its

two-day policy meeting, though with no change in rates expected

this week as eyes drift to its September gathering instead. A

big week for labor market data kicks off with the release of

U.S. June job openings, and then we'll see June goods trade,

which will figure into the week's second-quarter U.S. GDP

report.

* In the thick of the corporate earnings season - with four

big tech megacaps reporting this week and the likes of UPS,

Merck and Boeing out later today - Wall Street indexes eked out

new records on Monday. U.S. futures were positive again ahead of

Tuesday's bell, with European and Chinese stocks rebounding too

and only Japan bucking the trend.

* Treasury markets were steady after hefty debt auctions on

Monday. The Treasury announced plans to borrow $1.007 trillion

in the third quarter, largely in line with forecasts though

likely frontloaded with bill sales. Details of the quarterly

refunding will be released on Wednesday. Along with the Fed

meeting, bonds kept a close eye on higher crude oil prices after

Trump set a new deadline of "10 or 12 days" for Russia to make

progress toward ending the war in Ukraine or face more sanctions

on both Moscow and buyers of its oil exports.

Today's Market Minute

* U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators met for a second day of

talks in Stockholm to defuse the bilateral trade war between the

world's two biggest economies. The meetings are expected to

agree another 90-day extension of a tariff truce struck in

mid-May.

* South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said he would

seek a mutually beneficial trade deal when he meets U.S.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for talks this week.

* U.S. President Donald Trump unexpectedly shortened his

deadline for hitting Russia with the most severe sanctions on

its oil exports to date. While the market has called the

president's bluff thus far, the sheer scale of the threat may

force investors to start pricing in this meaningful tail risk,

writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.

* The earnings season is ramping up, and investors are once

again focusing on whether companies will beat or miss

expectations. However, Panmure Liberum investment strategist

Joachim Klement claims the major driver of share prices can be

found in the bond market.

* As investors brace for the busiest week of the U.S. earnings

season, debate is picking up again about the 'Mag 7' influence

over U.S. equity indexes and whether we could be seeing the

beginnings of true market broadening. Read the latest from ROI

columnist Jamie McGeever.

Chart of the day

Dollar selling has abated in recent weeks, but the weekend

U.S.-EU trade deal has catapulted it higher across the board as

investors start to remove a tariff risk premium dogging the

currency all year. The dollar's DXY index surged more than 1% on

Monday, its biggest one day gain in more than two months, and

has added to that on Tuesday. After just two days, it's on

course for its best week of the year.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. June goods trade balance (8:30ED AM T), June

retail/wholesale inventories (8:30 AM EDT) May house prices

(9:00 AM EDT), July consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT) June

JOLTS job openings data (3:00 PM EDT) Dallas Federal Reserve

July service sector survey (3:30 PM EDT)

* International Monetary Fund releases its update World

Economic Outlook (9:00 AM EDT)

* U.S. and Chinese negotiators meet for a second day in

Stockholm

* Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts its

two-day meeting on interest rates, decision Wednesday

* U.S. corporate earnings: UPS, Merck, Boeing, PayPal,

Starbucks, Visa, Corning, UnitedHealth, Procter & Gamble,

Stanley Black & Decker, Sysco, Incyte, Norfolk Southern,

Booking, Ecolab, Carrier, PPG, Regency Centers, Caesars, Royal

Caribbean, American Tower, CBRE, Teradyne, Mondelez, BXP,

Seagate, DTE

* U.S. Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes, $30

billion of 2-year floating rate notes

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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