(.)

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike

Dolan

What appeared like a solid earnings beat from AI-bellwether

Nvidia ( NVDA ) failed to impress nervy tech investors, with

anxiety about the wider U.S. economy persisting as trade tariff

drums keep beating.

As the poster child for the artificial intelligence boom

that's driven Wall Street outperformance over the past two

years, the giant chip designer continues to underline the scale

of that growth. But after a 3% bounce on Wednesday before the

after-hours update, the stock ebbed about 1% overnight.

While Nvidia ( NVDA ) delivered a 78% surge in quarterly revenue, the

end of triple-digit revenue growth in 2025 now seems inevitable.

What's more, it said first-quarter margins would tighten to 71%

from 73.5% - lower than Wall Street's 72.2% estimate - as it

ramps up production of new flagship Blackwell AI chips.

The bar to impress is simply sky-high from here after a 1,800%

stock price explosion over the past five years. And that's

alongside persistent fears about overspending in the booming

industry, along with geopolitical trade and investment curbs and

overseas competition add questions going forward.

The underwhelming reception for Nvidia's ( NVDA ) latest did little

to sooth the ongoing 10%-plus correction in stocks of the once

'Magnificent Seven' Big Tech U.S. megacaps since December.

And there are other fish to fry for the broader market

as investors now parse signs of a new year slowdown in

the U.S. economy, along with another confusing salvo on tariff

threats from President Donald Trump late on Wednesday - this

time a warning of 25% duties on Europe.

Futures on this year's underperforming S&P500 index

perked up on Thursday nonetheless, trying to claw back the 6,000

handle the index lost earlier in the week. Europe's high-flying

stock benchmarks, meantime, were knocked back about

0.5% from new records by the latest tariff warnings.

But the tariff uncertainty and deep cuts to government workers

and programs underway stateside are starting to jangle business

and consumer confidence and economic activity.

While likely affected by poor weather, housing is another worry

and made for another data miss on Wednesday. Sales of new U.S.

single-family homes fell more than expected in January as

persistently high mortgage rates sidelined potential buyers.

Thursday's diary offers another health check on the new

year, with durable goods, jobless claims, pending home sales and

another business survey due. And a January readout on inflation

captured by the personal consumption expenditures basket is now

keenly awaited.

But U.S. economic surprise indexes are now at their most

negative since September, and first-quarter GDP estimates will

be watched closely for any further slowing from Q4's 2.3% pace -

with a revision of the latter due Thursday too.

The bond market senses some trouble, with 10-year Treasury

yields sliding to their lowest of the year on

Wednesday before steadying and reclaiming 4.3% early today.

Two-year yields hit their lowest since before

November's election on Wednesday but firmed again today to 4.1%.

The swoon in yields, which have lost about a quarter of a

percentage point in just two weeks, has been exaggerated in part

by nerves about another debt ceiling standoff ahead - which

Federal Reserve officials have indicated may pause its ongoing

balance sheet runoff of bonds.

However, Fed easing hopes have gone up a notch too this week

and futures now see an 80% chance of another rate cut by June.

U.S. crude oil prices also hit a new year low on

Wednesday before steadying today. Trump on Wednesday said he was

reversing a license given to Chevron ( CVX ) to operate in

Venezuela by his predecessor Joe Biden more than two years ago.

Thursday's slight backup in debt yields and the euro's

retreat on Trump's European tariff sideswipe, bolstered

the dollar index. But currency markets have been mostly

undecided all week between the influence of trade war fears that

lift the greenback and a U.S. slowdown that could drag on it.

Geopolitical worries continued to rumble in the background, with

uncertainty about the mooted deal to end the Ukraine war and

Chinese military activity around Taiwan into the mix.

Gold prices slipped again, however.

Risk assets more generally - especially those most connected

with the tech sector - are on the back foot. Bitcoin

plunged deeper below $90,000 on Wednesday to hit its lowest

since shortly after the election more than three months ago.

Elsewhere, Asia stocks were more mixed. China's mainland

index eked out a gain, but Hong Kong ended slightly in

the red. Japan's Nikkei recovered a touch from early

week losses.

Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S.

markets later on Thursday:

* US January durable goods orders and pending home sales, Q4

GDP revision, weekly jobless claims, Kansas City Federal

Reserve's February business surveys; Mexico Jan jobless and

trade; Canada Q4 current account balance

* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman,

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Cleveland Fed chief

Beth Hammack, Kansas City Fed boss Jeffrey Schmid, Richmond Fed

chief Thomas Barkin and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael

Barr all speak

* UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer meets US President Donald

Trump in Washington

* US corporate earnings: Dell, HP, Warner Bros Discovery,

Edison, Hormel Foods, Autodesk, Evergy, Mosaic, JM Smucker,

Norwegian Cruise Line, EOG, Solventum, Teleflex, Viatris,

Vistas, Erie Indemnity etc

(By Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX

[email protected])