(The opinions expressed here are those of the authors.)
By Anna Szymanski
LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Check out what the ROI team
are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.
Hello Morning Bid readers!
The job of the U.S. Federal Reserve was made a bit harder
yesterday. First, there was news that second quarter GDP was
revised up to 3.8%, the fastest annualized growth since 3Q2023.
U.S. President Donald Trump then announced a batch of new
tariffs, including 100% levies on branded drugs and 25%
tariffs on heavy-duty trucks.
The details remain unclear and there will certainly be
exemptions, but the combination of resilient economic growth and
potential upward price pressures calls into question
expectations for aggressive monetary easing. The market had been
pricing in more than an 80% chance of a 50 basis point cut by
December, but that's now down to roughly 60%. All eyes will be
on the PCE inflation data coming out later today.
Even if the policy rate does keep falling, as expected,
political uncertainty, fiscal issues and inflation fears could
push up the long end of the curve. That might be bad news for
the AI boom, argues Joachim Klement, investment strategist at
Panmure Liberum.
Meanwhile, central bank-watchers got their fill this week, with
a slew of talks from multiple Fed officials, including Chair
Jerome Powell, Governor Stephen Miran, and San Francisco Fed
President Mary Daly.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also spoke on the Market
Musings podcast, suggesting that the Fed should consider
replacing the 2% inflation target with a range, abandoning the
"illusion of precision."
In the commodities markets, much attention has been focused on
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure. ROI
Energy Columnist Ron Bousso argues that if these attacks are too
successful, they risk raising the ire of President Trump.
In other energy news, the future of seaborne coal is looking
increasingly split between robust domestic markets in China,
India and Indonesia and a gradually fading seaborne market,
explains ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell.
On the renewables side, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin
Maguire notes which countries, beyond China, are likely to play
the biggest role in determining future pollution trends.
And, finally, over in the metals world, ROI Metals Columnist
Andy Home explains why traders are betting that the nickel price
has hit rock bottom.
As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team's
recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch
to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.
I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
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committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(By Anna Szymanski.)