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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Fed's tough job gets harder
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MORNING BID AMERICAS-Fed's tough job gets harder
Sep 28, 2025 7:15 PM

(The opinions expressed here are those of the authors.)

By Anna Szymanski

LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Check out what the ROI team

are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.

Hello Morning Bid readers!

The job of the U.S. Federal Reserve was made a bit harder

yesterday. First, there was news that second quarter GDP was

revised up to 3.8%, the fastest annualized growth since 3Q2023.

U.S. President Donald Trump then announced a batch of new

tariffs, including 100% levies on branded drugs and 25%

tariffs on heavy-duty trucks.

The details remain unclear and there will certainly be

exemptions, but the combination of resilient economic growth and

potential upward price pressures calls into question

expectations for aggressive monetary easing. The market had been

pricing in more than an 80% chance of a 50 basis point cut by

December, but that's now down to roughly 60%. All eyes will be

on the PCE inflation data coming out later today.

Even if the policy rate does keep falling, as expected,

political uncertainty, fiscal issues and inflation fears could

push up the long end of the curve. That might be bad news for

the AI boom, argues Joachim Klement, investment strategist at

Panmure Liberum.

Meanwhile, central bank-watchers got their fill this week, with

a slew of talks from multiple Fed officials, including Chair

Jerome Powell, Governor Stephen Miran, and San Francisco Fed

President Mary Daly.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also spoke on the Market

Musings podcast, suggesting that the Fed should consider

replacing the 2% inflation target with a range, abandoning the

"illusion of precision."

In the commodities markets, much attention has been focused on

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure. ROI

Energy Columnist Ron Bousso argues that if these attacks are too

successful, they risk raising the ire of President Trump.

In other energy news, the future of seaborne coal is looking

increasingly split between robust domestic markets in China,

India and Indonesia and a gradually fading seaborne market,

explains ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell.

On the renewables side, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin

Maguire notes which countries, beyond China, are likely to play

the biggest role in determining future pollution trends.

And, finally, over in the metals world, ROI Metals Columnist

Andy Home explains why traders are betting that the nickel price

has hit rock bottom.

As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team's

recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch

to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at

Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday

morning? Sign up for the newsletter

here

.

Reuters website

LinkedIn

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Anna Szymanski.)

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