(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

April 1 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

"Off ramp" seems to be the word of the week surrounding the Iran

war - and the steep Wall Street rally on the final day of the

first quarter spoke to that relief on Tuesday.

Will April skies clear? The S&P 500's jump of almost 3% was the

biggest one-day gain since last May, and the other assets beaten

down by the war - bonds, credit and gold - all followed suit.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on how cash beat every

classic safe haven in March. If you want to know why, just ask

Warren Buffett.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast, where I discuss the relief rally and break down an

upside surprise in U.S. consumer confidence.

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FINDING THE 'OFF RAMP'

The ostensible triggers for the rally were signals from

President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the U.S.

could be set to wind down the war. This followed reports that

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was willing to discuss a

ceasefire in exchange for guarantees that attacks would not be

repeated.

Brent crude traded around $103 per barrel on Wednesday morning,

while WTI hovered around $100 after earlier dipping below that

level.

As things stand, though, missile and drone exchanges in the Gulf

continue. The extent of Tuesday's market moves may also have had

something to do with month-end and quarter-end considerations,

as well as the holiday-shortened week.

But Asia's markets followed suit on Wednesday, with sharp gains

in Japan and South Korea. European markets are also up, and Wall

Street futures look to have retained their gains ahead of

today's bell.

Meantime, gold climbed to a nearly two-week high before trimming

some of its gains. The dollar edged down against a basket of

major currencies, while the yen held firm under the

160-per-dollar level.

All this comes as President Trump prepares to address the

nation on Wednesday evening to give an "important update on

Iran", according to the White House.

In the background, investors digested two pieces of U.S.

economic information - a surprising rise in U.S. consumer

confidence readings for March, and weaker soundings from the

February job openings report.

In Asia, factory activity slowed in March amid rising fuel

costs, but South Korea bucked the trend as activity rose at the

strongest pace in more than four years on semiconductor demand.

AI-driven appetite for semiconductors also boosted South Korea's

export growth to a four-decade high.

Stateside, the March private sector payroll update from ADP

will be released later today, along with February retail sales.

And, of course, the new quarter will focus attention on the Q1

corporate earnings season, with full-year growth estimates

seemingly unchanged so far by the energy shock of the past

month.

Chart of the day

Nike's forecast of a surprise drop in fourth-quarter sales on

Tuesday sent its shares down more than 9% in extended trading,

as persistent weakness in China and slow progress in clearing

older inventory hamper turnaround efforts. The company is

reducing selling in China as it works through the inventory and

expects China sales to fall a staggering 20% next quarter.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. March ADP private payrolls (8:15 a.m. EDT), February

retail sales (8:30 a.m. EDT), March manufacturing PMIs (10 a.m.

EDT)

* President Trump delivers an update on Iran (9 p.m. EDT)

* Fed's Michael Barr and St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem

both speak

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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