(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

March 11 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

Both energy and stock markets appear to be in a holding

pattern after the wild swings earlier this week as they look for

any evidence that oil and gas supplies might be freed up in the

Middle East.

For now, there are few signs on the ground to back up President

Trump's view that the war will be over very soon, with Tuesday

seeing intense bombardments, shipping still blocked in the

Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Aramco's CEO warning of

"catastrophic consequences" for the oil market if conflict drags

on.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on why an Iran oil shock

could prove politically toxic in the U.S. even if GDP escapes

largely unscathed.

And listen to today's episode of the Morning Bid podcast, where

I discuss oil-shock inflation fears and look ahead to today's

big macro release - inflation data for the leadup to the crisis.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest

news in markets and finance seven days a week.

FROM PANIC TO PATIENCE

Oil prices initially dropped below $90 per barrel on Wednesday

on reports that the International Energy Agency had proposed the

largest release of oil reserves in its history - more than

double the size of the 182 million barrels released after the

Ukraine invasion in 2022.

Oil then staged a rebound, however, as traders digested the

proposal. Goldman Sachs estimated a release the size of that in

2022 would offset 12 days of an estimated 15.4 million barrel

per day export disruption in the Gulf.

As prices seesaw, though, it will be hoped that Monday's

panic surge in crude markets to nearly $120 per barrel has set

the parameters for prices - at least until the duration of the

Iran conflict becomes clearer.

Wall Street was mixed on Tuesday as the intense bombardments in

the Middle East - and further Iranian threats of a comprehensive

oil blockade - dampened earlier hopes for a short-lived

conflict. All major indexes closed largely flat.

Global shares steadied somewhat on Wednesday as Japan's Nikkei

gained 1.7% and South Korea's KOSPI rose by 1.75%. European

stocks opened lower, however, while U.S. stock futures held

steady ahead of the bell.

Meantime, the dollar rebounded after slipping early on

Wednesday, holding onto some of the early-week gains it recently

shed as traders looked for signs of a quick conclusion to the

war.

Later today, traders will get a read on where U.S. CPI was

in February, just before the Iran attacks started late in the

month. More important, though, will be the release on Friday of

February PCE data, the Fed's favoured measure of inflation. Core

inflation measured by the latter was likely already running

above 3% before the oil spike.

Elsewhere, Oracle's shares surged 8% in extended trading after

its latest results, which saw it predict boosted revenue

estimates well into 2027 on the AI data center boom, helping to

reassure investors about the massive scale of its capex. The

results also serve as a reminder of the enduring AI theme in

equities beyond the day-to-day energy market ructions.

Ongoing angst about private credit funds and the quality of the

loans contained within them is also rising, however. JPMorgan

Chase has marked down ‌the value of certain loans held by

private credit groups and is tightening its lending to the

sector, the FT reported on Wednesday

Chart of the day

U.S. consumer prices likely picked up in February as the

cost of gasoline increased in anticipation of an escalating war

in the Middle East, and with the ​conflict driving up oil

prices, a further rise in inflation is expected in March.

The anticipated increase in the Consumer Price Index last

month would ‌also reflect the continued but staggered

pass-through from President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs,

which he pursued under a law meant for use in national

emergencies, that have since been struck down by the U.S.

Supreme Court.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. February CPI (8:30 AM EDT)

* U.S. 10-year note auction

* Fed's Michelle Bowman speaks

* OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.