A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike
Dolan
Macro markets have basically frozen ahead of this week's big
U.S. inflation releases, with sideshow entertainment provided by
a fresh burst in activity in so-called 'meme stocks' while
earnings updates and deals sagas dominated overseas.
With Wednesday's April consumer price report this week's
focus, Tuesday's release of the month's producer price index
provides the appetizer - with core annual factory gate price
readings expected to be steady at 2.4%.
Although these critical data inputs likely set the tone for
the public rather than the other way around, the backdrop on
household inflation expectations has not been great. The New
York Federal Reserve's April survey showed Americans project
inflation a year from now at 3.3% - up from the 3% level seen in
all the first three months of this year - and gloomier jobs
outlook and it reinforced similar readings from University of
Michigan on Friday.
Fed vice-chair Phillip Jefferson was not giving much away
but said that "the decline in inflation has attenuated in the
first quarter of this year and that, for me, is a source of
concern."
Still, with so much riding on this week's data blockbusters,
U.S. Treasury yields edged lower and the S&P500
was caught in a narrow range. Stock futures weren't
inclined to challenge that pattern early on Tuesday.
Optimism that rate cuts are coming this year persists. Bank
of America's monthly survey of global fund managers found 82%
expect the first Fed cut in the second half and they identified
"long U.S. dollar" as the second 'most-crowded trade' in May.
Nevertheless, the dollar was firmer on Tuesday.
It got another lift against Japan's yen even as
speculation swirled about a possible Bank of Japan pullback from
its yield-capping bond-buying program - talk that's lifted
10-year government bond yields there to six-month
highs just under 1%. Some market participants believe the yen's
excessive weakness may be forcing the BOJ's hand into allowing
interest rates and yields to rise more rapidly.
The dollar also gained against sterling even after
Britain's latest wage inflation data came in above forecasts.
Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill remained cautious but
said it was "not unreasonable" to expect rate cuts this summer.
Much of the rest of the big market moves in Europe were
earnings related.
Germany's Delivery Hero shares soared 20% after
Uber ( UBER ) announced a $1.25 billion deal to take over its
foodpanda business in Taiwan and buy new shares in the German
firm.
Chinese stocks were subdued as U.S. President Joe
Biden unveiled a bundle of steep tariff increases on an array of
Chinese imports including electric vehicles, computer chips and
medical products - suggesting an election-year standoff with
Beijing.
Back on Wall St, much of the buzz was on the revival of the
'meme stock' craze.
Shares of videogame retailer GameStop ( GME ) surged nearly
75% on Monday after "Roaring Kitty", an account associated with
a social media influencer Keith Gill and credited with sparking
the 2021 meme stock rally, returned to X.com after a three-year
hiatus from the app.
The rally was replicated in other meme stocks, such as
Theater group AMC and extended further ahead of
Tuesday's bell.
In tech ChatGPT-maker OpenAI said late on Monday it would
release a new AI model called GPT-4o, capable of realistic voice
conversation and able to interact across text and image.
Apple ( AAPL ) supplier Foxconn reported a 72%
rise in first-quarter profit, boosted by strong demand for
computer servers and coming off a low base from the period a
year earlier - but it missed forecasts.
In a big week for retail earnings that sees Home Depot
report later on Tuesday, Walmart ( WMT ) was reported to be
cutting hundreds of corporate jobs and asking most remote
workers to move to offices, the Wall Street Journal said.
And in deals, BHP is expected to sweeten its $43
billion takeover offer for Anglo American for a second time and
possibly add cash after the London-headquartered target rejected
a higher bid. BHP has until May 22 to return with a binding
offer or walk away under UK takeover rules.
Anglo American, meantime, laid out a strategic
review that includes a potential break-up of the company by
demerging or selling its steelmaking coal, nickel, diamonds and
platinum businesses as it tries to fend off the BHP swoop.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later
on Tuesday:
* US April producer price report, US NFIB April small business
survey
* US corporate earnings: Home Depot
* Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks in Amsterdam; Dutch
central bank chief and European Central Bank policymaker Klaus
Knot speaks; Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks; Kansas City Fed
President Jeffrey Schmid speaks; ECB board member Isabel
Schnabel speaks; Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks
* ECOFIN group of European Union finance ministers meets in
Brussels, with ECB board member Luis de Guindos attending
* US Treasury auctions 12-month bills
(Editing by Bernadette Baum)