(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Anna Szymanski
LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - A look at what matters in
U.S. and global markets today from Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large,
Finance and Markets
Global equity markets were rattled on Friday and oil prices shot
higher after Israel conducted a military strike on Iran, pushing
investors toward safe havens such as gold and the Swiss franc.
Investors have typically shrugged off Middle East tensions in
recent years, but this latest move has the potential to be a
game changer in the region. I'll provide a quick overview of the
market reactions below and then provide some weekend reading
suggestions from Mike Dolan.
I'm also excited to announce the launch of Reuters Open Interest
(ROI), your essential new source for data-driven global
financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.
Today's Market Minute
* On Friday, after two decades of continually raising the alarm
and urging other world leaders to act, Israel's Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu finally decided to go it alone, authorising
an Israeli air assault aimed, Israel says, at preventing Iran
from obtaining weapons of mass destruction.
* World stock markets tumbled on Friday and oil prices surged as
Israel launched its strikes, sparking a rush into safe havens
such as gold, the dollar and Swiss franc.
* Rescuers searched for missing people and aircraft debris in
charred buildings in Ahmedabad on Friday after more than 240
people were killed in an Air India Boeing 787 crash, and as
local media reported that India was considering grounding the
airline's 787 fleet for safety checks.
* Israel's strikes on Iran have raised the prospect of global
oil prices hitting $100 a barrel. If Tehran seeks to escalate
the conflict by retaliating beyond Israeli borders, it could
seek to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most
important gateway for oil shipping, writes ROI Energy Columnist
Ron Bousso.
* At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week,
investors will scrutinize all communications for any sign that
the recent softening in U.S. inflation could be enough to nudge
policymakers closer to cutting interest rates. Read the latest
from ROI Markets Columnist Jamie McGeever.
ISRAELI STRIKE HITS CRUDE MARKET
Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran on Friday, saying
it targeted nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and
military commanders during the start of a prolonged operation to
prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.
Alongside extensive air strikes, Israel's Mossad spy agency
led a series of covert sabotage operations inside Iran, Axios
reported, citing a senior Israeli official. These operations
were aimed at damaging Iran's strategic missile sites and its
air defence capabilities.
Iran launched about 100 drones towards Israeli territory in
retaliation, many of which have already been intercepted,
according to an Israeli military official. Iran denied it had
launched drones, the Fars news agency said.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the Israeli
offensive a "unilateral action" and said that Washington was not
involved.
Market reaction was swift. Crude prices jumped on Friday,
amid fears that Israel's strike could spark additional Iranian
retaliation that could disrupt oil supplies.
Brent crude futures hit an intraday high of $78.50 per
barrel, the highest since January 27, before settling back down
around $74. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
reached a high of $77.62, its highest level since January 21,
before settling back above $73 a barrel.
A key investor concern now will be whether the latest
developments will cause Iran to disrupt transit in the Strait of
Hormuz. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption
passes through the strait, or some 18 to 19 million barrels per
day (bpd) of oil, condensate and fuel.
As geopolitical tensions rose, Gold climbed as high as
$3,444.06 per ounce, bringing it close to the record high of
$3,500.05 from April.
"Traders are now on edge over the prospects of a full-blown
Middle East conflict," said Matt Simpson, a senior market
analyst at City Index. "That will keep uncertainty high and
volatility elevated."
WEEKEND READING SUGGESTIONS
Here are some articles away from the day-to-day headlines
that you may find interesting.
1. FED FOOTNOTE: Speculation about President Trump's willingness
and ability to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has
stoked concerns about Fed independence all year, though a recent
Supreme Court ruling seemed to clear up the issue. But writing
on the Project Syndicate site, Professor Barry Eichengreen
argues that the footnote in the court ruling that supposedly
protects the Fed came with no legal basis. "The note reads like
a ChatGPT hallucination," he wrote, adding "arbitrarily
exempting the Fed opens the door to arbitrarily not exempting
the Fed." Advocates of Fed independence should be worried, he
concluded.
2. G6 RUSSIAN SANCTIONS: Most G7 countries look set to tighten
sanctions on Russia and push for a lower Russian oil price cap
at next week's summit in Canada regardless of U.S. objections,
according to Reuters' sources. Earlier this month, Brookings
economists Robin Brooks and Ben Harris published a detailed
analysis of why this approach was workable and makes sense.
3. SELF DRIVERS: Reuters' Norihiko Shirouzu shows how BYD shook
up China's smart-EV industry earlier this year by offering its
"God's Eye" driver-assistance package for free, undercutting
Tesla's more expensive technology.
4. SPIES AND CRYPTO: At a time when Europe is in a heightened
state of alarm over Russia's "hybrid war" of sabotage and
espionage, Reuters found that Moscow is increasingly recruiting
teenagers and complete novices in its efforts. A Special Report
by Reuters' Mari Saito, Anna Koper, Anton Zverev, Filipp
Lebedev and Polina Nikolskaya details the case of Canadian
teenager Laken Pavan.
5. COAL AND WATER: April marks the start of the cruelest months
for residents of Solapur, a hot and dry district in western
India. In peak summer, the wait for water taps to flow can
stretch to a week or more. Reuters Krishna N. Das and Sarita
Chaganti Singh show that since 2017 a new 1,320-megawatt
coal-fired power plant run by state-controlled NTPC has started
to compete with residents and businesses for water from the same
reservoir.
Chart of the day
Friday's gains for Brent crude and WTI futures were the
largest intraday moves for both contracts since 2022, when
Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices. "A
key question is whether the Iranian retaliation will be limited
to Israel or if the leadership will seek to internationalize the
cost of tonight's action by targeting bases and critical
economic infrastructure across the wider region," RBC Capital
analyst Helima Croft said in a note.
TODAY'S EVENTS TO WATCH
* University of Michigan June consumer survey (10:00 AM
EDT); Canada April manufacturing sales
* European Central Bank board member Frank Elderson speaks
at IMF-WB annual conference for senior supervisors
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is
committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.