(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

July 1 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

The new month, quarter and second half kicked off in a cautious

mood, with U.S. Treasury yields jumping overnight as the June

jobs report looms, and investors are already looking ahead to

the second-quarter earnings season.

While there was no precise trigger for the jump in Treasury

yields, it followed news of another surprise rise in U.S. job

openings for May and comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin

Warsh's appearance at the European Central Bank's annual forum

in Portugal later today.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out the first edition of a new mid-week series

where I unpack some of the less obvious themes in finance and

markets. First up - is a young population still the economic

boon it once was?

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast on what investors will be zeroing in on as the new

quarter begins. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss

the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

KICKING OFF H2

The U.S. labor market may be picking up steam. The so-called

JOLTS report for April had shown available jobs surging, but

many economists argued that the report was likely an outlier and

would be revised down. But May's report saw openings rise yet

again to reach a two-year high.

ADP's private-sector jobs numbers are due today, while the

June national payrolls report will come out a day early on

Thursday owing to Friday's Independence Day holiday.

Meanwhile, hopes that top-level talks between U.S. and Iranian

officials would get underway on Tuesday were disappointed as the

Iranian side failed to show up over disputes about details of

the framework agreement.

In FX markets, Japan's yen sliced through 162 per dollar on

Tuesday to new 40-year lows, but there's been no sign of

intervention to halt it so far.

Staying in Asia, South Korea's overall exports surged over 70%

last month, their fastest pace in nearly 50 years, fuelled by a

blistering 200% increase in chip exports. This makes the country

only the fourth in the world to eclipse $100 billion in monthly

exports.

Back on Wall Street, attention is already drifting to the

upcoming second-quarter earnings season. That's understandable

given how transformative the last one was for the AI spending

theme and the chip sector.

Aggregate annual profit growth is expected to be about 22%,

but 60% of that is in the chip and tech equipment sector, and

just two firms account for 40% of it: Nvidia and Micron.

Chart of the day

South Korea's exports expanded at the strongest pace in nearly

half a century last month, smashing forecasts on a surge in chip

sales propelled by the global boom in AI investment.

Exports from Asia's fourth-largest economy rose 70.9% in

June from a year earlier to $102.25 billion, quickening from the

53.4% jump in May and marking the biggest year-on-year increase

since October 1978.

Semiconductor exports surged 199.5% to $44.8 billion, making

South Korea the fourth country in the world to reach a monthly

export value of $100 billion, after Germany, China and the U.S.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. June ADP payrolls (8:15 a.m. EDT), June ISM

manufacturing PMI (10 a.m. EDT)

* Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the ECB's annual forum in

Sintra, Portugal

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.