(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

March 31 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

The turbulent first quarter of 2026 ends with a dull thud, as

the Iran war continues to rumble and the energy price shock hits

homes with average U.S. gas pump prices crossing $4 per gallon

for the first time in more than three years.

The war's expected timeline shifts from headline to headline.

For those betting the conflict will end soon, the Wall Street

Journal provided some ammunition, reporting on Monday that

President Trump was prepared to end the war without opening the

Strait of Hormuz - an encouraging thought that's lifted U.S.

stock futures on the last day of a bruising March.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on how markets are giving

central banks room to pause amid the energy shock.

And listen to today's Morning Bid podcast, where I take stock of

the first quarter's major market moves. Subscribe to hear

Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and

finance seven days a week.

MARCH IS THE CRUELLEST MONTH

While the WSJ report indicates that Trump is looking for an

immediate offramp, those pessimistic about the duration of the

war may focus more on the Iranian attack on an oil tanker in the

Gulf that took place early Tuesday - as well as further reports

of U.S. troops arriving in the region, this time 2,500 Marines.

Crude prices were choppy on Tuesday morning, ebbing slightly

before climbing again to leave Brent hovering around $115 per

barrel and U.S. crude around $104.

Stocks were mixed, meantime, with Wall Street futures in the

green before the bell. And while European shares edged up on

de-escalation hopes, the pan-European STOXX 600 still remains on

track for its sharpest monthly fall since 2020.

Elsewhere, Asian trading had another painful session as major

indexes closed lower - with South Korea's KOSPI suffering its

steepest monthly fall since 2008.

U.S. Treasury yields eased on Monday, though they remain on

track for a steep monthly rise, with eurozone bond yields

dipping as well. Fed Chair Jerome Powell helped the recovery in

Treasuries yesterday when he noted that long-term inflation

expectations remained "well anchored" - though he otherwise said

the Fed would "wait and see" how the war ultimately impacts

inflation.

But as the IMF pointed out on Monday, "all roads lead to higher

inflation and slower growth". In that vein, eurozone inflation

leapt to 2.5% in March from 1.9% previously, while on Monday

fresh German inflation data showed a jump to 2.8% from 2.0%.

Elsewhere, China business surveys showed some resilience this

month, with factory activity growing at the fastest pace in a

year, mirroring readings elsewhere.

Stateside, a big labor market week - culminating in the

March jobs report on Good Friday - will kick off today with the

release of February's job openings data. And traders will also

get a read on how U.S. consumers are weathering the energy shock

so far with the release of the Conference Board's latest

consumer confidence index.

Chart of the day

Much like March manufacturing readings from Europe and America,

China's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in a year this

month, an official survey showed on Tuesday.

It remains to be seen whether this was a spurt of activity

before March's oil price shock or simply occurred despite it

given China's large energy stockpiles. The reboot after the

Lunar New Year holiday in February may also have been a factor.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. March consumer confidence (10:00 AM EDT), JOLTS job

openings (10:00 AM EDT)

* Fed's Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman, Chicago Fed's

Austan Goolsbee and Kansas Fed's Jeffrey Schmid all speak

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.