(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, July 22 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and

global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

I'll discuss all the market news below, and then I'll explore

how the Trump administration's push to reform the Fed might have

deeper and longer-lasting impacts than the removal of Jerome

Powell.

Today's Market Minute

* Japan's election outcome may put the central bank in a double

bind as prospects of big spending could keep inflation elevated

while potentially prolonged political paralysis and a global

trade war provide compelling reasons to go slow on rate hikes.

* A growing number of European Union member states, including

Germany, are considering using wide-ranging "anti-coercion"

measures targeting U.S. services if the EU cannot reach a trade

deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, EU diplomats say.

* If U.S. President Donald Trump's public attacks on Federal

Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have achieved one thing, it has been

to thrust the issue of central bank independence firmly into the

spotlight. But this raises the question, what does

'independence' really mean? Read the latest from ROI markets

columnist Jamie McGeever.

* The European Union's latest effort to restrict Russia's oil

revenue is unlikely to hurt Moscow's war effort severely,

leaving U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of secondary

sanctions one of the few remaining economic levers to pressure

the Kremlin, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.

* A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this

year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy

Agency are being far more cautious in their growth expectations.

ROI Asia Commodities columnist Clyde Russell explains why this

matters.

Markets oddly serene

U.S. tariff hikes are likely coming next week, public debt

is rising and Federal Reserve independence is being questioned -

but the U.S. and world economies seem to be chugging on

regardless, well through the northern summer.

Annualized U.S. economic growth is running about 2.4% at

midyear and U.S. economic surprise indexes are more positive

than they have been for a couple of months, with global

equivalents at their most positive in more than a year. U.S.

financial conditions indexes are the loosest in three years.

With big-tech megacaps due to start reporting Wednesday with

Alphabet and Tesla updates, the earnings season just unfolding

is already ahead of low-bar expectations. With about 12% of

S&P500 firms now reported, the blended estimate of annual profit

growth is running at 6.7% - about a point faster than was seen

at the start of July.

The new highs for the S&P500 and Nasdaq on Monday were less

surprising given all that, even though the daily moves were

marginal and futures basically flat ahead of Tuesday's bell.

There's been little new on the trade tariff front, even though

European Union warnings late Monday of its willingness to use a

range of retaliatory measures if faced with higher levies

dampened the equity market mood somewhat on Tuesday.

Relief that weekend Japanese upper house elections did not force

an immediate resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba saw

the yen pop higher on Monday and 10-year Japanese government

yields fell sharply as Tokyo markets reopened on Tuesday. The

Nikkei lost early gains.

The drop in U.S. and European short- and long-term Treasury

yields on Monday was perhaps more surprising, pulling the dollar

back down in the process as the focus switched to Japan.

While some of that was given back on Tuesday, the buoyancy

of the long end of the U.S. curve was remarkable given Fed

independence concerns.

Even though Fed policymakers are in a blackout period on

policy statements ahead of next week's meeting, embattled Fed

boss Jerome Powell is due to give opening remarks to a Fed

regulatory conference on Tuesday.

All of which brings us back to the Fed poser, the political

pressure on the central bank to accelerate interest rate cuts

and threats to Powell's position over anything from historical

Fed policy performance and its involvement in non-monetary

issues to how he managed rennovations of the headquarters.

Chart of the day

Reuters is tracking how companies are responding to the

threat posed by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. As of

July 22, Reuters has counted 273 companies worldwide that have

reacted to the tariffs in some manner. The estimated cost to the

companies stood at over $34 billion, as of end May. Our tally is

based on various sources, including quarterly financial reports,

interviews and statements from company officials.

Today's events to watch

* Richmond Federal Reserve July business survey (10:00 AM

EDT)

* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks

before hybrid "Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for

Large Banks" Conference hosted by the Fed

* U.S. corporate earnings: Lockheed Martin, General Motors,

Pentair, Paccar, Halliburton, Texas Instruments, Invesco, MSCI,

Capital One, Equifax, Synchrony, Pultegroup, Danaher, Philip

Morris, Sherwin-Williams, EQT, RTX, CoStar, Chubb, Intuitive

Surgical, DR Horton, Interpublic, Baker Hughes, Enphase, Quest

Diagnostics, IQVIA, Genuine Parts, KeyCorp

* UK finance minister Rachel Reeves testifies before House

of Lords' Economic Affairs Committee

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.