(The opinions expressed here are those of the author.)

By Anna Szymanski

July 9 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Anna Szymanski, Editor-in-Charge, Reuters Open Interest

Military exchanges between the U.S. and Iran intensified

overnight as President Donald Trump seemed to double down on his

view that Tehran was an unreliable negotiating partner, while

also indicating that a full-scale war would not be restarting.

Oil markets have so far taken the flareup in stride, with Brent

crude staying under $80 per barrel despite yesterday's surge to

multi-week highs.

Global bonds remained weak in Asia trading, while stocks were

mixed early on Thursday. A burst of enthusiasm for chip stocks

in the U.S. on Wednesday helped lift Asian equities briefly

before the rally lost momentum.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast, where we discuss the longer-term implications of this

recent burst of hostilities in the Gulf and why volatility is

not necessarily a bad thing for markets.

Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news

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MARKETS REMAIN LONG TACO

Another round of U.S. strikes on Iranian targets came on

Wednesday. Tehran retaliated by launching attacks on Kuwait,

Bahrain and Qatar.

The U.S. strikes followed remarks by Trump in Turkey

yesterday that he believed the two sides' interim agreement was

"over" and that negotiating with Tehran was not worthwhile.

However, he also said the war likely would not restart, noting:

"Anything that happens is going to be over very quickly ... and

will only make it safer, including for oil".

And traders appear to put more weight on the latter message. Oil

prices have been relatively calm, paring early gains to trade at

around $78/bbl on Thursday morning. That's around where they

settled on Wednesday after rising more than 5%.

The question now is if we do see both sides pull back from this

latest eruption, how far do prices fall? If the Gulf is now in a

chronically unstable situation as Tehran vies for control over

the Strait of Hormuz, a higher risk premium would likely need to

be reflected in crude prices.

Global bond yields continued to rise on Thursday given the

renewed tensions in the Middle East and inflation fears, with

Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield hitting a

30-year high.

In equities, chip stocks staged a bit of a comeback stateside on

Wednesday. Broadcom rallied after Apple said it planned to spend

more than $30 billion on the semiconductor giant's chips,

helping the Nasdaq edge up slightly.

And memory chip optimism was also reflected in news that SK

Hynix's $28 billion U.S. share sale was more than seven times

oversubscribed. The South Korean chipmaker's shares jumped 5% in

Asia, though the KOSPI ended lower once again after rallying

earlier in the session.

Wall Street futures, meanwhile, were in the green before the

bell on Thursday.

On the monetary policy front, Wednesday saw the release of the

Fed's June meeting minutes, which showed an evenly divided

debate over whether to hold or hike rates, with a "few

participants" noting a potential case for immediate hikes and

several pointing out that price pressures were becoming "more

broad-based".

Elsewhere, NATO member states may have breathed a sigh of relief

after the conclusion of the summit in Turkey, where President

Trump said there had been "a lot of unity" and announced Ukraine

would be granted a license to manufacture Patriot missile

interceptors. That was a big win for Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Russia announced on Wednesday that it would ban

diesel exports as part of its efforts to support its domestic

fuel market. Systematic Ukrainian drone attacks on oil

refineries have triggered gasoline shortages and ‌price spikes

in one of the world's largest oil-producing nations.

Chart of the day

The minutes of the June 16-17 Federal Reserve meeting

highlighted the central bank's growing concerns about inflation.

While the majority of members think inflation will fall back to

the 2% target, they are not discounting a scenario in which it

remains elevated, necessitating rate hikes.

Energy prices - which, of course, came down after the Fed

meeting last month - are not the only issue. The potential

inflationary impact of booming investments in AI was also

brought up in the debate.

Fed funds futures currently imply 38 basis points of

tightening through January 2027, a slight increase back to where

expectations were roughly a week ago.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m. EDT), existing home

sales (10 a.m. EDT)

* U.S. 30-year bond auction (1 p.m. EDT)

* New York Fed's John Williams and Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan

both speak

* U.S. corporate earnings: PepsiCo

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

(By Anna Szymanski; Additional writing by Al Reed; Editing by

Ros Russell)