(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
August 3 (Reuters) -
What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets
Japan's yen strengthened further on Monday as the U.S. and
Japanese governments confirmed their first joint intervention
since 2011 to prop up the ailing currency from recent 40-year
lows. Both the timing and impact of the move are being examined
closely.
I'll get into that and more below.
But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily
podcast, where we discuss the historic intervention, U.S.
corporate earnings growth and the latest on Iran.
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MUCH 'TO DO' ABOUT YEN INTERVENTION
There are many questions about the timing of Friday's joint yen
intervention. The Bank of Japan had delayed another interest
rate rise last week, partly because of the recent earthquake in
the country, and perhaps Tokyo and Washington fretted about how
that decision could impact the yen. Then there's the real
prospect of a Federal Reserve rate rise as soon as next month.
Either way, Japan sold almost $60 billion to support the yen and
Scott Bessent's "to-do" list revealed U.S. plans to spend
between $5 billion and $10 billion. Successful or not, the two
sides have pledged to repeat the action as necessary.
The fallout may be aggravating U.S. bond yields on the
assumption that Japan, the biggest single overseas creditor to
the U.S. government, could liquidate Treasuries to raise the
dollars to sell. Bessent, however, said that a Fed repo facility
using Japan's bond holdings as collateral was activated.
Otherwise, Treasuries have caught something of a break from
President Trump's latest pause in bombing Iran, which comes as
he claims fresh talks between the two sides would take place on
Monday. Oil prices fell over 5% on the development to below $84
per barrel.
In equities, Asia markets started the week in the red, with
South Korea's volatile KOSPI sliding more than 5% after a record
rally last Friday. Stateside, Wall Street futures were up before
the bell.
This week the U.S. July employment report comes into view, while
the U.S. earnings season rolls on, with companies set to report
including Palantir, AMD and SpaceX.
There have been some eye-popping metrics so far, with
aggregate annual S&P 500 profit growth tracking a whopping 47%
in the second quarter, according to LSEG data. That's almost
twice what was expected a month ago, as Big Tech's AI push
combines with a bumper quarter for the big banks and Big Oil.
This level of growth has only been exceeded in recent
decades during the bouncebacks from the banking crash and
pandemic recessions. But, of course, there's been no recession
this time.
This staggering earnings growth helps explain why both
dip-buying and sectoral rotation are the preferred responses to
recent volatility on Wall Street, rather than cashing out.
In deals news, AstraZeneca shares fell sharply on Monday as
investors baulked at reports of merger talks with Bristol Myers
Squibb - mooted tie-up that would form one of the world's
biggest drugmakers with a combined value of nearly $400 billion.
Chart of the day
The U.S. and Japan intervened to buy yen against the dollar and
euro last week in the first such joint action since 2011. They
pledged more action as and when necessary, and the yen, which is
up around 4% against the dollar since Japan's first action on
Thursday, briefly hit its best levels since early May on Monday.
The action has arrested a slide that took the yen to 40-year
lows last week, with renewed currency weakness a feature so far
of Sanae Takaichi's nine months as prime minister.
A fresh bout of fiscal spending and perceived pressure on
the Bank of Japan not to raise interest rates have been factors,
but so too has speculation about how Japan will finance hundreds
of billions of U.S. investments pledged in the bilateral trade
deal between the two countries.
Today's events to watch
* U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for July (10 a.m. EDT)
* U.S. corporate earnings: Palantir
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
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