(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a
columnist for Reuters.)
By Mike Dolan
April 2 -
What matters in U.S. and global markets today
By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets
Market hopes that President Trump might signal an immediate end
to the Iran conflict were dashed overnight after his prime-time
address talked of another two to three weeks of war and offered
few new details.
Another risk-off turn was the result, with oil prices pushing
back higher, global stocks retreating and the dollar edging up.
I'll get into that and more below.
But first, check out my latest column on the real economy's
apparent resilience to the oil shock so far - plus a closer read
of the latest macro releases.
And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily
podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the
biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
NO EASTER TRUCE
Brent crude climbed back to almost $109 per barrel and WTI to
just over $107 on Thursday after Trump's televised speech, in
which he said the U.S. military had nearly achieved its goals in
Iran but would "hit them" over the coming weeks and "bring them
back to the Stone Ages".
Although Trump noted that "discussions are ongoing", he gave
little detail on access through the critical Strait of Hormuz.
Asian stock indexes ended the session in negative territory,
with Japan's Nikkei down 2.4% and South Korea's Kospi sliding
4.7%. European shares slid by around 1% after the open, while
U.S. futures were in the red before the bell.
Meantime, the dollar index edged up after two days of losses,
regaining the 100 level as safe-haven demand reemerged, while
gold eased back from the two-week highs it touched on
Wednesday's glimmers of hope. U.S. Treasuries were also down.
Investors are heading into a long Easter weekend with a degree
of nervousness about what happens next. Adding to the tension,
Good Friday will see the release of the March U.S. employment
report, which will give another read on any real-economy impact.
For now, though, early prints of March economic data point to
less of a shock than many expected. ISM's manufacturing survey
ticked higher, U.S. consumer confidence rose unexpectedly,
private sector payrolls beat forecasts and full-year corporate
earnings growth estimates are actually increasing.
Maybe the hit will come with a delay, but for now the
picture is one of steep input price rises and resilient activity
- which will keep central banks on their toes.
Elsewhere, as NASA heads back around the moon for the first time
in half a century, Elon Musk's SpaceX finally filed for an
initial public offering - which could become the largest in
history, and a test of investor appetite for big-ticket risk
assets against an unsettled market backdrop.
Meantime, Amazon is in talks to buy satellite telecom group
Globalstar as it ramps up efforts to build its own
low-earth-orbit satellite business to rival SpaceX's Starlink,
the Financial Times reported.
Chart of the day
Air travel in and out of the United Arab Emirates is only
slowly recovering from the initial shock of the Iran war, with
Trump indicating overnight that there would likely be two to
three weeks more of the conflict.
Today's events to watch
* U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m. EDT), February trade
balance (8:30 a.m. EDT)
* Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan speaks (10:15 a.m. EDT)
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect
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committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.