(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

Nov 3 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

World markets kicked off November in an upbeat mood, riffing off

buoyant company earnings and calmer trade relations while

batting away OPEC's planned end to output hikes and this week's

Supreme Court hearing on President Donald Trump's tariffs.

Following last week's meeting between Trump and China's

President Xi Jinping in South Korea, the White House announced

Saturday that China would lift export controls on rare earths

and end probes into U.S. chip firms. But Trump said AI giant

Nvidia's most advanced chips would be reserved for U.S.

companies and kept out of China and other countries.

October manufacturing surveys are due to give some glimpse of

nationwide activity later amid an official economic data outage

that's accompanying the ongoing government shutdown, now heading

for a record in excess of 35 days this week. Federal food aid

lapsing this month is seen by some as one reason politicians may

be forced to end the dispute soon.

But however damaging the shutdown may prove to be in the final

quarter, the third quarter was an impressive one for corporate

America after a turbulent start to the year.

According to LSEG data, Q3 annual profit growth for the S&P

500 is now estimated to be running at almost 14% - five

percentage points faster than estimated a month ago and faster

than was penciled in at the start of the year.

With the likes of Palantir and Eastman Chemical in today's

earnings diary, the picture appears to be brightening beyond the

red-hot AI sector.

Wall Street index futures are higher heading into Monday's

open, with crude oil prices steady despite the weekend OPEC

decision. Treasury yields edged lower from Friday's highs, while

the dollar nudged up to three-month highs.

Fed bank presidents on Friday aired their discomfort with the

decision to ease policy, and traders are now pricing in just a

68% chance of another 25 bps cut in December. Pushing again for

the Fed to ease more, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on

Sunday that parts of the economy, particularly housing, may

already be in recession because of high rates.

One event being watched closely this week is the start on

Wednesday of Supreme Court arguments about the legality of a

whole swathe of Trump's tariffs. While even a ruling against may

just see the tariffs enacted under different legislation, it

could create a hiatus in the process and involve rebates to

firms that have paid.

Overseas, the focus was on relatively downbeat factory

surveys for last month - with the euro, yuan and yen all a touch

weaker. However, most global bourses were higher on Monday.

In today's column, I discuss whether Meta's mega $30 billion

bond sale last week to help fund its AI spending spree is a sign

of rising corporate leverage into the tech boom - and

competition for Treasury in attracting investment capital.

Today's Market Minute

* Asia's big manufacturing hubs struggled to fire up

in

October, business surveys showed on Monday, as

weak U.S. demand and tariffs under President Donald

Trump hit factory orders across the region.

* Artificial intelligence giant Nvidia's

(NVDA.O), opens new tab

most advanced chips will be reserved for U.S. companies

and

kept out of China and other countries, President Trump

said.

* Parts of the U.S. economy, particularly housing,

may

already be in recession because of high interest rates, U.S.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday,

repeating his call for the Federal Reserve to accelerate

rate cuts.

* Top Western oil companies are enjoying a windfall

from

the expanding attacks on Russia's oil industry - both literal

and economic - that have boosted global refining profit margins

and mitigated concerns over a looming supply glut.

Read the latest from ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso.

* OPEC+ managed to both meet market expectations and

deliver a surprise by agreeing to a small rise in crude oil

output for December, but then pausing for the first quarter of

next year,

writes ROI Asia commodities columnist Clyde Russell.

Chart of the day

The U.S. Supreme Court considers the legality of Trump's global

tariffs, with arguments set to be outlined on Wednesday. The

court, whose 6-3 conservative majority has backed Trump in a

series of major decisions this year, is hearing his

administration's appeal after lower courts ruled the Republican

president overstepped his authority in imposing sweeping tariffs

under a federal law meant for emergencies. A ruling striking

down Trump's use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic

Powers Act, or IEEPA, to quickly impose broad global tariffs

also would eliminate a favorite tool to punish countries that

draw his ire on non-trade political matters. Administration

officials say the tariffs will remain under one legal authority

or another if the court rules against these measures.

Today's events to watch (All times EDT)

* U.S. October manufacturing survey from S&P Global (0945)

and ISM (1000)

* Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook and San Francisco

Fed President Mary Daly speak; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff

Macklem speaks

* U.S. corporate earnings: Palantir, Eastman Chemical,

Clorox, IDEXX, Progressive, ON Semiconductor, Coterra,

Diamondback, Williams, Loews, Vertex, Hologic, Pinnacle West,

SBA, Public Service Enterprise, Simon Property, Realty Income

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

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