(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

April 27 (Reuters) -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

The weekend brought us stalemate in Iran, resurgent oil prices,

and a shooting close to a Washington press dinner attended by

President Donald Trump and his officials - yet tech stocks keep

rising regardless.

The dissonance between the AI boom and rancorous geopolitics

looks set to continue this week. Companies representing some 44%

of the S&P 500's market cap will report earnings in the coming

days, with little sign so far of any let-up in the AI arms race

around the world.

I'll get into that and more below.

But first, listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily

podcast, where I unpack the busy week ahead. Subscribe to hear

Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and

finance seven days a week.

OIL AND CHIPS

Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon will all report

earnings this week, just as chipmakers' stocks have been

rocketing on demand for AI components and equipment. Intel's

staggering advance to record highs is the story of the month in

many ways.

But it's not clear how markets will receive signs of ever higher

capex from hyperscalers and big tech firms - most recently

Tesla, which last week lifted its 2026 capex plan to more than

$25 billion.

Unease may eventually build, but for now tech stocks are still

on a tear, with chipmakers leading Asian indexes to fresh record

highs on Monday. That's after Wall Street hit record peaks on

Friday too, though S&P 500 futures were flat before the bell on

Monday. European shares were muted after the open.

Back in macro markets, oil keeps pushing higher, with Brent

crude touching a three-week high of $108 per barrel. Traffic

through the Strait of Hormuz is still at a crawl, and no new

peace talks have been scheduled so far, though Pakistani efforts

to broker discussions continue.

Long-term energy futures are also rising, with Goldman Sachs

raising its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $90/bbl.

Meantime, the Fed and other major G7 central banks are all

set to meet this week, with the Bank of Japan being the first to

deliver its rate decision on Tuesday. None are expected to move

interest rates this week as they continue to assess how energy

prices are impacting inflation outlooks.

But the Fed's meeting will be noteworthy as it's likely to be

the last for Jerome Powell as chair. Friday's news that the

Department of Justice was dropping its criminal probe into

Powell has cleared the way for the Senate confirmation of chair

nominee Kevin Warsh. Forward guidance from Powell may now pack

much less of a punch than it has for the last eight years.

Otherwise, the week will bring some fresh inflation prints

from around the world, with U.S. personal consumption

expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed's preferred gauge, due on

Thursday, alongside flash data from the euro zone.

Chart of the day

U.S. oil exports have soared in recent weeks, helping to

temper the acute energy supply shock emanating from the Middle

East. Total U.S. oil exports this month hit an all-time high of

12.9 million barrels per day, of which refined products

accounted for over 60%, according to Energy Information

Administration data.

Seaborne U.S. oil exports are set to climb to a record 9.6

million bpd in April, with flows to Asia nearly doubling from

pre-war levels to 2.5 million bpd, according to data analytics

firm Kpler. The surge has helped cushion Asian economies, among

the most exposed to Gulf supply losses, writes ROI Energy

Columnist Ron Bousso.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. 2-year and 5-year note auctions (1 p.m. EDT)

* Bank of Japan begins monetary policy meeting

* UK's King Charles III begins four-day U.S. state visit

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.