(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, Aug 4 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and

global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

Whatever the market take was from Friday's surprisingly soft

U.S. payrolls update has been overshadowed by the instant firing

of the statistician responsible for them - leaving more

questions than answers about the veracity of these numbers and

all those in the future.

The massive downward revisions to prior months' job totals

were a bigger initial jolt than the slight miss to July payrolls

or the uptick in the unemployment rate. But President Donald

Trump's dismissal of Bureau of Labor Statistics boss Erika

McEntarfer over what he called "rigged" data means investors now

either dismiss the July report or assume future reports will be

massaged to be more favorable to Trump.

* Trump's firing of McEntarfer has prompted investors to

revisit April's questions about damage to U.S. transparency and

institutional integrity - qualities that, for many, have been at

the heart of America's long-standing exceptional economic and

financial performance. The early resignation of Federal Reserve

Board Governor Adriana Kugler, also on Friday, now gives Trump

the chance to put a third nominee on the seven-person Fed board

- increasing his influence on the central bank while he is

demanding steep interest rate cuts.

* The jobs data release on Friday has prompted market futures

to price an 85% chance of a Fed cut next month - compared to

less than 50% beforehand - and more than fully price two cuts by

year's end. U.S. Treasury yields plunged to their lowest in over

a month. Ten-year yields clocked the biggest one-day fall of the

year and the 2-30-year yield curve widened to its steepest in

over three years. The dollar swooned, giving back a chunk of

last month's rally. Most of these moves were pared back slightly

first thing on Monday.

* U.S. stocks ended down more than 1% on Friday, having

already been jarred by the August 1 tariff announcements, and

the VIX 'fear index' jumped above 20 for the first time since

June - likely reflecting unexpected jobs market weakness and a

duff earnings outlook from Amazon. Futures were back up more

than 0.5% ahead of Monday's bell as another heavy week of

earnings beckons and Palantir tops Monday's diary. With

two-thirds of the S&P 500 having reported Q2 updates, the

blended annual profit growth rate for the 500 firms is running

at 11% - almost twice estimates one month ago and back roughly

to where expectations were on January 1.

Market Minute:

* White House economic advisers on Sunday defended Trump's

firing of McEntarfer, pushing back against criticism that it

could undermine confidence in official U.S. economic data.

* A top aide to Trump on Sunday accused India of effectively

financing Russia's war in Ukraine by purchasing oil from Moscow,

after the U.S. leader escalated pressure on New Delhi to stop

buying Russian oil.

* The Bank of England is widely expected to cut its key interest

rate to 4% from 4.25% on Thursday and to lower it once more

before the end of the year, despite consumer price inflation

rising in June to almost double the central bank's 2% target.

* Only a few months ago, it would have been a brave call to say

that OPEC+ would be able to bring back 2.5 million barrels per

day of crude production and still keep oil prices anchored

around $70 a barrel. But this is exactly what has occurred. ROI

columnist Clyde Russell asks whether the group's lucky timing

can continue.

* The Korean equity market, which went from being among the

worst performers in Asia last year to the best regional

performer in 2025, stumbled over the past week. The rally has

fundamental support, but it could sputter if expected

shareholder-friendly reforms don't materialize, argues Emmer

Capital Partners CEO Manishi Raychaudhuri.

Chart of the day:

Feeling the heat? July was the third warmest on record worldwide

- some 1.25 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era

average.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. July employment trends (1000 EDT), June durable goods

orders (1000 EDT)

* US corporate earnings: Palantir, Loews, Tyson Foods, Coterra

Energy, ON Semiconductor, Vertex, Waters, SBA communications,

Diamondback Energy, Williams, IDEXX, ONEOK, Axon

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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.