(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a

columnist for Reuters.)

By Mike Dolan

LONDON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and

global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets

Even if you don't think tariffs are feeding price rises yet, the

sharp jump in U.S. producer prices in July - driven by the

biggest jump in retail and wholesale margins in two years - was

a shot across the bow that tempers heady interest rate cut

speculation.

Lifting Treasury yields, buoying the dollar and stalling

Wall Street stocks at record highs, the PPI report scotched any

thought of a half point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next

month and sowed a sliver of doubt it would ease at all.

Attention now switches to retail sales and industry updates on

Friday, while next week's Fed conference in Jackson Hole comes

onto the radar too.

* With some of the heat taken out of effervescent risk markets,

U.S. retail sales are expected to show a brisk 0.5% gain last

month but industrial production growth is forecast to have

stalled, with import prices flat. June inventory readings and a

consumer sentiment survey for August add to a busy diary. Fed

officials threw cold water on talk of a 50 basis point cut in

September, an idea that had been stoked by Treasury Secretary

Scott Bessent the previous day.

* As hopes of a Ukraine ceasefire stirred with the Trump-Putin

summit in Alaska due to get under way, European stocks and the

euro advanced on Friday, while the European defence sector fell

back 1.5%, crude oil slipped about 0.6% and gold prices remained

subdued. Chinese stocks rallied despite another poor set of

industry, retail and housing reports as speculation about some

further stimulus there resurfaced, with reports of government

support for troubled property developers in the mix. The yen

firmed as Japan's Q2 GDP came in more than twice expectations at

+1.0% annualised.

* Shares of Intel surged almost 5% in pre-market trading after

Bloomberg reported the Trump administration was in talks with

the struggling chipmaker on the U.S. government taking a stake

in the company. The reported discussions follow a meeting this

week between Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan - just days after

Trump called for Tan's resignation over alleged China-linked

investments.

Today's Market Minute:

* Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold talks in Alaska on

Friday, with the U.S. president's hopes of sealing a ceasefire

agreement on Ukraine uncertain but with a last gasp offer from

Putin of a possible nuclear deal that could help both men save

face.

* The talks in Alaska mark the potential beginnings of a return

of Russia - and its commodities - to the global arena following

Moscow's recent international isolation. ROI columnist Gavin

Maguire provides a guide on the potential market impacts should

global relations with Russia return to normal.

* China's factory output growth slumped to an eight-month low in

July, while retail sales slowed sharply, raising pressure on

policymakers to roll out more stimulus to revive domestic demand

and ward off external shocks to the $19 trillion economy.

* Wall Street's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates,

Tiger Global Management and Discovery Capital, increased their

exposure to Big Tech in the second quarter amid a generational

boom in the growth of artificial intelligence.

* The U.S. economy seems to be chugging along fairly smoothly,

but ROI columnist Jamie McGeever discusses five charts that

indicate the foundations of the resilient U.S. economy and

booming stock market may be much shakier than they appear.

Chart of the day:

China's factory output growth slumped to an eight-month low in

July, while retail sales slowed sharply, raising pressure on

policymakers to roll out more stimulus to revive domestic demand

and ward off U.S. tariff-related pressures. While reports of

more official support for ailing property firms emerged, the

housing sector remains a running sore. New home prices fell 2.8%

in July year-on-year, versus a 3.2% drop in June.

Weekly reads:

* INDEPENDENCE AND LOYALISM: Pushing back on a view that Federal

Reserve Chair Jerome Powell should resign to clear the air over

Trump's repeated attacks on him, former Fed Vice Chair Roger

Ferguson gives a stout defense of Fed Independence. "For the

stability of the dollar and the entire U.S. financial system, it

is critical that Powell does not resign prematurely," Ferguson

wrote in a piece for the Council on Foreign Relations. "Equally

important is that the next chair not be seen as a political

loyalist of President Trump."

* WHO ARE 'BOND VIGILANTES'?: European Central Bank economists

look at the role of investment funds, who they say hold up to a

quarter of outstanding euro government debt in some countries,

as the prime 'vigilantes' in times of stress. Foreign funds are

the most jumpy and 'procyclical' of that grouping in offloading

bonds due to credit, stability or interest rate concerns - while

domestic households and insurance firms tend to buy the bonds

investment funds sell, they explain.

* DEBT BURDENS LIFT RATES: As some puzzle over the relatively

calm U.S. bond markets despite rising sovereign deficits and

debts, IMF economists re-examine the links between debt burdens

and higher borrowing rates and term premiums in a paper

published on CEPR's VoxEU site. Updating the dataset from

earlier studies, they conclude that a 10% of GDP increase in

expected debt is associated with an increase in long-term rates

of between 20 and 30 basis points, while a 1% of GDP increase in

the fiscal and primary deficit has a similar impact.

* INVESTMENT SPENDING NOT ENOUGH: Using Japan's experience as a

example, Daniel Gros at the Institute for European Policymaking

at Bocconi argues that Europe just upping billions in investment

spending may not be the spur to the economy that many assume.

Ensuring the money is better spent on start-ups and its

"innovation ecosystem" rather than via big companies alone would

yield better results, he wrote on Project Syndicate.

* DARK SIDE OF AI CHATBOTS: Internal guidelines at Facebook

owner Meta Platforms explicitly permitted its artificial

intelligence chatbots to "engage a child in conversations that

are romantic or sensual", according to a Reuters special report.

Reuters' Jeff Horwitz illustrates some of the darker side of the

AI revolution now sweeping tech and the broader business

world.

Today's events to watch

* US July retail sales (0830 EDT) July import and export

prices (0830 EDT) New York Fed's August manufacturing survey

(0830 EDT) July industrial production (0915 EDT) June

business/retail inventories (1000 EDT) University of Michigan

August consumer sentiment survey (1000 EDT) Treasury's June TIC

data on U.S. securities holdings (1500 EDT)

* U.S. President Donald Trump meets Russian President

Vladimir Putin in Alaska to push for a ceasefire deal in the war

in Ukraine

-- Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday

morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on

the Reuters website, and you can follow us on LinkedIn

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.